2011 MLB Projections and Divisional Analysis

With baseball in the air (the regular season is less than five weeks away), it's time to do what most of us do before the start of every season: projections. Many have the Phillies penciled in to represent the National League in the World Series; I do as well. But, with a few exceptions, pretty much every division this year is up for grabs, and 2011 will surely be yet another exhilarating baseball season, though I'm not so sure it will end with as much of a shock as last season did. So here goes:

AMERICAN LEAGUE:

Manager of the Year: Jim Leyland, Tigers
Most Valuable Player: Evan Longoria, Rays
Cy Young Award Winner: Felix Hernandez, Mariners

Division Winners:
East: Boston Red Sox
Central: Detroit Tigers
West: Texas Rangers

Wild Card:
New York Yankees

American League Champion:
Boston Red Sox

The East is a battle between guess who? Obviously the Yanks and the Sox. But in 2011 the Red Sox have the upper hand, taking the Yankee approach and acquiring two of the top players in the game, Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford. To add to the Yankees' problems, Cliff Lee bolted back to Philly, where he will likely end up facing the Sox in October. If the Yanks want to win, and I'm sure they do, they need to abandon franchise policy and make an in-season deal for a quality starter. Either that or they need A.J. Burnett to rebound or for Ivan Nova to establish himself. 

Three teams have a legitimate shot in the Central this season: the Tigers, White Sox, and Twins. I predicted the Tigers to come out on top, but much of that hinges on youngsters Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello, and of course troubled Miguel Cabrera. Bringing in Adam Dunn will certainly bolster the White Sox' offensive attack, but their starting pitching doesn't seem to be there, especially with the injury liability of ace Jake Peavy. The Twins' rotation features a certifiable ace in Francisco Liriano, but could really be aided by Brian Duensing's emergence as a top major league starter. Having Joe Nathan back will enable Matt Capps to pitch from the setup role and create a quality back-end of the bullpen. The Twins will also need a fluke, career year from an offensive player this year like Jason Kubel's 2009 if they want to advance to the postseason.

Look out for the Oakland A's in the relatively weak West: as they will by no means make the Series, they will likely give the Rangers a run for their money. Billy Beane's acquisitions of Hideki Matsui and David DeJesus give the A's a bit of offense to go along with a staff that led the majors last year with a 3.47 ERA. The Rangers' offense will likely to be too much to handle however, and will offset the subpar pitching enough to lead them to a divisional crown, but the Series seems far-fetched now that Cliff Lee is gone.

If they are able to stay healthy, there is no stopping Boston this year in the American League. Gonzalez and Crawford make them very arguably the most potent offense in baseball, which combines with a rotation featuring two Cy Young candidates in Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz. Their rotation also features John Lackey and Josh Beckett, both aces earlier in their careers. Just one of these guys pitching to their full potential would have this rotation rivaling the Phillies' come the Fall Classic.

NATIONAL LEAGUE:

Manager of the Year: Mike Quade, Cubs
Most Valuable Player: Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies
Cy Young Award Winner: Josh Johnson, Marlins

Division Winners:
East: Philadelphia Phillies
Central: Chicago Cubs
West: Colorado Rockies

Wild Card:
Atlanta Braves

National League Champion:
Philadelphia Phillies

While I expect the Phillies to take home a 5th consecutive East crown, it can't be handed to them just yet. The Braves look awfully strong with their ever-consistent pitching staff and acquisition of Dan Uggla to boost the offense. Jason Heyward will continue to emerge as a star and the heralded Freddie Freeman is a pick by many for Rookie of the Year. But is it really possible for them to counter Halladay, Lee, Oswalt and Hamels? I say not. However, a postseason meeting between the two is a possibility.

Four of the six teams in the Central will likely finish above .500, but neither the Brewers, Cardinals, Reds, or Cubs will be great. Three of these: the Brewers, Cardinals, and Cubs, will battle for divisional supremacy. The Brewers acquired Zach Greinke, the '09 Cy Young Winner; the Cardinals welcome in slugger Lance Berkman; and the Cubs replaced Sweet Lou with Mike Quade, who apparently fits in extremely well with his players. The sidelining of Adam Wainwright will result in the Cards having a tough hill to climb, and ultimately keep them at home in October. The battle that will ensue between the Cubs and Brewers is likely a toss-up. The Cubs need Carlos Zambrano to deliver a gem, and newly-added Carlos Pena to carry the offense. Both Starlin Castro and Tyler Colvin have ridiculous potential, and much of this season's outcome for the Cubs will be on their shoulders.

The Giants are the defending champs, but not fending off the Rockies could result in them missing the postseason altogether. While both of these teams, and possibly the Dodgers as well, will likely finish on top of the Central winner, we could very well see only one playing for a World Series trophy. A scary thought is that Tim Lincecum last year had the 4th-highest ERA of the rotation, and it wasn't bad, either, at 3.43. Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, and Madison Bumgarner all featured marks below that, and with Lincecum on top of his game, they are a deadly rotation. They also have a top closer in Brian Wilson, who saved 48 games for the champs a year ago. The reason why they might finish below the Rockies, though, is that it is hard to believe their pitching could one again compensate for the offense, which clicked at the right time last season and won't be able to sustain for another entire season. The Rockies feature two MVP candidates in their lineup: Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, both potential Hall of Famers. They also have a surefire ace in Ubaldo Jimenez, as well as young Jhoulys Chacin who is full of potential. Expect the West race to be down to the wire; a 163rd game isn't out of the question.

While the Yankees will likely take the AL Wild Card without much competition, the fight for the final NL spot will be highly contested. Three of the teams fighting for the Wild Card could all finish above the Central division winner: the Giants, Dodgers, and Braves (or the Rockies swapping in for the Giants).

But when all is said and done, no National League team will be able to take down the Phillies. Their rotation is simply unfair. Four guys with a sub-three ERA? It's possible. Even if the offense struggles slightly through stretches like it did towards the end of last year, the four aces will carry them through it. The only thing keeping them from the Fall Classic would be another catastrophic offensive letdown (last year's NLCS). Even though Jayson Werth is gone, and Jimmy Rollins and Raul Ibanez' best days might be behind them, anything less than a World Series crown for the Phillies would be seem by the entire city as a failure.

Now, though, we sit back and watch. Projections never pan out 100% correct. Who picked the Giants be on top of baseball last October? Probably less than half of the city of San Francisco. There's a reason the game is played, and that is to discover the winner.