The Chris Paul trade controversy overshadowed what otherwise would have been a smooth transition from the lockout to the regular season, and the league's credibility took a major hit. If you've been living under a rock the past few weeks, searching "Chris Paul trade" on Google should get you back up to date.
Now I'll do my best to predict this season's fate for Paul's Clippers and every other NBA team for this season. Don't agree (which you probably won't in many places)? Feel free to comment.
Eastern Conference:
1) Miami Heat
There's no doubt this team will win a bunch of games. That's not what they are looking to do, obviously. Finishing with the best record in the conference is likely, but a championship trophy is far from guaranteed. If LeBron doesn't develop a killer instinct in the postseason, rings will elude Miami again, something I see happening.
2) Chicago Bulls
They will challenge the Heat for the best record in the conference after winning the regular season last year. Joakim Noah is the x-factor for this team: with Carlos Boozer aging, Noah will need to establish himself as more of a post presence, particularly on the offensive side of the ball.
3) Boston Celtics
The core players of this team, save Rajon Rondo, are dinosaurs. Yes, the Big Three are old. But the lockout helped these guys as much as anyone. They are already experienced playing with each other, so the shortened training camp doesn't hurt them much. A shorter season is also a friend to Allen, Pierce and Garnett's aging bodies. Jeff Green's absence (heart surgery) will hurt them, and could be what keeps this group from a final run at a championship.
4) Philadelphia 76ers
Many of you will stop reading here. They're my hometown and beloved team, I know. But hear me out. After starting 3-13 last year, this ballclub went 38-28 while still developing. The chemistry is only increasing, and all the young players are only getting better. Evan Turner, Thaddeus Young, Lou Williams, and Jrue Holiday all have breakout potential this year. Turner's jump shot looks eons better after training with Philadelphia shot doctor Herb Magee, and if he gets playing time ahead of Jodie Meeks could still be something special. The entire core of this team returns, so the lack of training camp doesn't hurt as much. I'll be writing a post on them soon.
5) Indiana Pacers
There's a lot of hype surrounding this club going into the season, to the extent of a high conference playoff seed. And why shouldn't there be? One of the top defensive teams in the league brings in David West, a guy who can score almost twenty a game. Couple that with the breakout potential of Darren Collison, Paul George, and Roy Hibbert, and this is suddenly a perennial playoff team. Danny Granger will continue to be the star, but it will be harder to tell when his supporting cast gets going.
6) New York Knicks
We'll see if Tyson Chandler somehow teaches Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire how to play defense, but you can't count on it. We already know Mike D'Antoni won't. This team looks scary on the offensive side of the ball, but teams don't win championships giving up 105 points per game.
7) Orlando Magic
Trading for Hedo Turkouglu last year turned out not to be the move this team needed. That being said, they still managed to finish with the conference's 4th-best record, something they are capable of repeating. Obviously, the key for this team is whether or not they can retain Dwight Howard, something becoming more and more likely, at least for this season, as the days go by. Ryan Anderson is a name to look out for; if he gets playing time ahead of Glen Davis, he could become a serious scoring threat beside Howard. The Jason Richardson signing was questionable from a fan's perspective, but he still provides production. Placing this team 7th seems odd after their past few seasons of success, but they're not the team they once were.
8) Atlanta Hawks
Pretty much all this team did this past offseason is lose Jamal Crawford, a tremendous scoring option. Considering this crew finished 44-38 this past season, the Hawks should scale back their championship aspirations. That being said, if Jeff Teague is able to break out in his first year as starting point guard (if he takes the job from Kirk Hinrich, a guy who we've seen his plateau), then this team could go somewhere.
If you hadn't noticed, these projected playoff teams are the same eight teams that were there last season, just in a totally jumbled up order. As of right now, outside of the Milwaukee Bucks, the remaining conference teams simply don't look good enough to compete, and most of them are rebuilding. This is the first year in awhile that the East could sport eight teams with winning records in the playoffs, and maybe even have a team miss the postseason playing ball above .500. Try to remember the last time that happened.
9) Milwaukee Bucks
They play tantalizing defense. Problem is, they are so bad on the other end of the ball that the stifling D can't make up for it. Bringing in Stephen Jackson could be the few extra points they need to reach the postseason, and he adds to the core of Andrew Bogut and Brandon Jennings. Rookie Tobias Harris could make an immediate impact off the bench. If Bogut or Jennings can't make offensive strides, though, come playoff time the Bucks could be on the outside looking in.
Part 2, the rest of the Eastern Conference, will be posted in a few days.
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