Onto the Postseason: MLB Division Series Projections

The Rays gather around home plate to welcome Evan Longoria, whose walk-off last night propelled Tampa into the Postseason.

You've probably heard what transpired last night in Major League Baseball, a night that was probably the most thrilling ever in regular season history. Following the collapses of the Red Sox and Braves, there is more baseball to be played.


Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers
Prediction: Rangers in four.

Yes, the Rays have a lot of fight in them, and their September run was riveting. But momentum doesn't always carry over, and overall the Rangers are the better team. Texas' superb offense, which ranked third in baseball with 855 runs, just won't be contained enough for the Rays to win the series. And the Rangers have a solid enough rotation that they should be able to contain the average Tampa offense enough to have the advantage on the scoreboard.

Tampa Bay also has rotation issues, as David Price just pitched yesterday, and James Shields won't be able to start until Game 2. Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, and even rookie Matt Moore are being considered by manager Joe Maddon for the Game 1 nod. Niemann and Davis both have ERAs over four, and Moore has only pitched 9.1 innings of major league ball in his entire career. But, hey, with the Rays, anything is possible.


Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees
Prediction: Yankees in five.

The Tigers are actually the favored by many people across the country; an ESPN SportsNation poll had 63% of the country picking the Tigers to win the series. Detroit does have a slightly better one-two punch in their rotation, sporting Justin Verlander and Doug Fister, who both have ERAs lower than CC Sabathia's 3.00. Ivan Nova will start Game 2 for the Yankees.

The reason 63% of the country has picked Detroit to win this series is because of one person: sure-to-be AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander. But in baseball, one pitcher simply can't win a series by himself. CC Sabathia has the skills to match Verlander pitch for pitch. Considering games one and four a toss-up is reasonable, since New York has the edge at the plate.


Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Brewers in four.

Only the Phillies sport a more solid postseason rotation than the Brewers. Milwaukee should be able to shoot down Arizona's offensive core (Justin Upton) fairly easily.

That being said, the Diamondbacks are very relatable to last year's Giants. They have a triple-A call-up playing first base for them. Their ace and 21 game winner Ian Kennedy was written off by the Yankees organization just a few years ago. They didn't have postseason aspirations at the start of the season. Yet somehow, they have chugged along to an improbable 94 wins and an NL West crown that was supposed to be won by the Giants or Rockies.

You can't write off the D'Backs. It's just too hard to pick them to get past Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder and the all-in Brewers. It's championship or bust with Fielder likely out following this postseason, and Milwaukee will come out with full force.


St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Phillies in four.

The Phillies would have been better off losing to Atlanta last night, oddly enough. For one, St. Louis is a tougher matchup than division foe Atlanta, a team they were able to take care of this year. An Atlanta win also would have forced a playoff, resulting in the winning team being fatigued and without their ace to start the series.

All of that aside, Philly is still the favorite. We all know why. Heck, they have Vance Worley, a guy who went 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA on the year, coming out of the bullpen. Whether Roy Oswalt will even start remains to be seen. The rotation is just unfair.

The only thing stopping the Phils from winning it all this fall will be an offensive letdown, something this veteran crew is subject to. It happened last year against the Giants, and resulted in a postseason exit.

Well, that, or a surging Albert Pujols, who is coming off a .355 September. Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday just so happen to be pretty good as well. While the Cards are capable of putting up runs against anyone, Philly should be able to contain them just enough to move on.

Down to the Wire

Story of Red Sox' September: Here, Jacoby Ellsbury can't make catch, resulting in Robert Andino inside-the-park HR

The Red Sox and Braves have folded when it matters most. But they're not out. Once far and away the two wild card leaders, these two ballclubs have fallen apart down the stretch and have put themselves in must-win situations against teams that aren't playing for anything. With only two games left for all four teams, the Red Sox, Braves, Rays and Cardinals will duke it out for the right to play on into October.

On the first day of September, the Boston Red Sox led the Tampa Bay Rays by nine games, and were actually a half game up on the Yankees for the AL East lead. It was almost a given Boston was in and would be a major threat to take the title to Beantown. While it is still a possibility, a 6-18 month is not a way to get that going. On the other hand, the Rays have played steadily, going 15-9 in September en route to tying the Sox. Now, Boston plays their final two games against the basement dwelling Orioles, who have had a knack for beating contending teams recently. The Rays finish against the AL's top seed, the Yankees, who don't have anything to play for and are starting relief pitchers. If the Sox and Rays finish with the same record, get ready for another Game 163.

The Cardinals have played themselves back into contention but will need some help from the 100-win Phillies to play on. Still a game back on the Braves with two left, the Cards need to take care of the Astros and hope the Phils beat the Braves at least once to stay alive. Going 8-16 this September, like the Red Sox the Braves are also on the verge of a historic collapse.

About five weeks ago I wrote a blog post stating if baseball wanted September races, second place team would have to have extraordinary Septembers. That didn't necessarily happen; while the Rays and Cards have certainly played well, much of the end-of-season urgency can be largely attributed to the slides by the Sox and Braves.

Week 3 NFL Projections

Last week: 13-3

Philadelphia Eagles 34, New York Giants 24

The Eagles have won the last six meetings between these two, and their defense should be able to rebound well enough from last week's disaster in Atlanta. And with Mario Manningham likely out and Steve Smith on the other sideline now, Hakeem Nicks will receive all the attention.

New England Patriots 31, Buffalo Bills 27

Buffalo is the talk of the NFL right now, jumping out to a surprising 2-0 start. Expect them to give the mighty Pats a dogfight, but ultimately fall just short. There's just no way to stop Tom Brady right now.

Dallas Cowboys 24, Washington Redskins 20

Tony Romo rebounded last week in leading his team to an overtime victory that saved the Cowboys from an 0-2 start. On the other hand, Rex Grossman has been better than expected and his Redskins have started 2-0. But Dallas is the more talented team, and even with DeAngelo Hall aiming for Tony Romo's ribs, the Boys will get the best of this NFC East showdown.

New Orleans Saints 31, Houston Texans 28

Drew Brees and the Saints will make the Texans' D feel like it's 2010 again. Through the first two weeks Houston has held opponents to just 10 points a game. But going to the Superdome to face Brees will not have the same outcome.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Indianapolis Colts 10
San Diego Chargers 41, Kansas City Chiefs 6
Green Bay Packers 23, Chicago Bears 13
San Francisco 49ers 21, Cincinnati Bengals 13
Miami Dolphins 17, Cleveland Browns 14
Tennessee Titans 23, Denver Broncos 13
Carolina Panthers 30, Jacksonville Jaguars 16
Baltimore Ravens 24, St. Louis Rams 10
New York Jets 31, Oakland Raiders 20
Arizona Cardinals 34, Seattle Seahawks 9
Atlanta Falcons 27, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14
Detroit Lions 31, Minnesota Vikings 13

The Closer Debate

As you are probably aware, Mariano Rivera has just shattered the MLB saves record a few hours ago with his 602nd regular season save, breaking Trevor Hoffman's record. The Sandman's poise, determination, and classiness make him the best in history at his position and beloved by the Yankee fan base.

That being said, his greatness is still up for debate. How much value should be placed upon a closer?

Relievers, it is sometimes said, are just the guys who aren't good enough to be starters. Why should getting three outs at the end of a ballgame mean anything when starters are expected to get 21 a night? Wouldn't the MLB's top-notch starters be able to handle a closer's task with ease?

Again, it is only three outs a closer has to get for a successful outing. Endurance isn't needed. Game planning is much simpler. Back when Goose Gossage pitched, he, and other relievers, would sometimes go two or three innings to earn a save, rather than just the one. Isn't the task of the modern-day closer simply too undemanding, and therefore overrated?

Well, not necessarily.

What Mariano excels at, his fantastic cutter aside, is the mental aspect of being a closer. If you have ever been watching a starter throwing a shutout, before or during the ninth inning the announcer will usually always say that the last three outs are the hardest to get. Think of how many no-hitters have been broken up in the ninth inning. A rebuttal to this could be that the starter has already thrown eight innings in a ballgame and is highly fatigued. Well then look at solid relievers who have been shifted from an eighth inning role to closer, and have fizzled extraordinarily. They didn't have the "closer's mentality," or the ability to be able to not let the pressure get to them and shut the door.

When a closer fails, it has a drastic effect on a ballclub, and underlines the value of a successful one. Take a look at Brad Lidge. In 2008, he was a perfect 48/48 in save opportunities, including the postseason. A steady closer adds a reassurance to the end of a ballgame. Like with Mariano Rivera in the Yankees case, the Phillies were almost positive they would win the game when leading heading into the ninth inning when 2008 Brad Lidge came out of the bullpen. Then in 2009, Lidge was awful. His 1.95 2008 ERA ballooned to 7.21 in 2009, and the end of every close game turned into a nail biter for the Phillies with the absence of quality closer work.

And this is why Mariano Rivera stands out. He has given the Yankees that reassuring feeling since he became their closer way back in 1997.  While a save may be an overrated stat by some accords, there is no diminishing on what Mo, a sure first-ballot Hall of Famer and owner of a 0.71 postseason ERA, has accomplished in his career. Some try and use the argument of how easy a task a closer might be to lessen his body of work. Either way, it has MLB Hall of Famers in awe. His excellence at his position exemplifies the value a reliable closer can have to a ballclub.

Week 2 NFL Projections

 

Philadelphia Eagles 30, Atlanta Falcons 17

Atlanta won't be able to contain their former star Mike Vick in his determined return. If the Bears can put up 30 on the Falcons' D there is no reason the Eagles much greater attack can't. 2011 won't be as kind to the Falcons as many predict; the expectations are set too high.

Buffalo Bills 27, Oakland Raiders 13

This is the first time in years a game between these two would be considered relevant at all. Ryan Fitzpatrick impressed fans everywhere in a convincing 41-7 win last week, while the Raiders barely escaped with a win over the hapless Broncos.

New Orleans Saints 24, Chicago Bears 20

Defensive leader Brian Urlacher lost his mother this past week, but will be returning to play this Sunday. Even with Urlacher on the opposing side, you can't pick against the Saints to put up a decent amount of points, and the Saints D will stave off Jay Cutler's attack just enough to get the W.

New England Patriots 41, San Diego Chargers 31

No surprise if Tom Brady and Philip Rivers combine for over 800 yards in this matchup. While San Diego did allow the least yards in the NFL last week, facing Tom Brady and the gang is just a bit different than a declining Donovan McNabb.

Detroit Lions 48, Kansas City Chiefs 10

If the Buffalo Bills just put up 41 on this Kansas City D, they are going to have even more trouble with this Lions offense that has the looks of something special.

Baltimore Ravens 24, Tennessee Titans 10
Cleveland Browns 20, Indianapolis Colts 13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20, Minnesota Vikings 17
New York Jets 24, Jacksonville Jaguars 7
Pittsburgh Steelers 17, Seattle Seahwawks 13
Washington Redskins 21, Arizona Cardinals 20
Green Bay Packers 38, Carolina Panthers 14
Dallas Cowboys 20, San Francisco 49ers 17
Cincinnati Bengals 14, Denver Broncos 10
Houston Texans 34, Miami Dolphins 20
New York Giants 23, St. Louis Rams 17

Major PR Mistake for Bud Selig

This past Sunday, September 11, MLB commissioner Bud Selig made a decision that outraged many baseball fans across the country. Today, he is embarrassed by it. And he should be.

In honor of the victims and first responders of 9/11, the New York Mets wanted to wear the first responders' caps for their prime-time ballgame as various NFL coaches had done on the sidelines earlier that day. But Selig shot it down.

The league warned the Mets about wearing the hats, and there is a report that it confiscated the hats after the pregame ceremony, in which Mets players donned the NYPD and FDNY hats. It is disputed whether the MLB actually would have punished them for playing in them, which would have made the league look even worse.

The Mets ended up wearing the official MLB 9/11 cap, which featured a small American flag on the side.

Selig, who has been looked upon critically from baseball fans throughout his tenure, is now facing hatred from many people.  He went and called the Mets earlier today, and criticized them for making the event public and throwing the league "under the bus." But really, he embarrassed himself.

2011 NFL Regular Season Projections

 AFC East:
1) New England Patriots
2) New York Jets
3) Miami Dolphins
4) Buffalo Bills

AFC North:
1) Pittsburgh Steelers
2) Baltimore Ravens
3) Cleveland Browns
4) Cincinnati Bengals

AFC South:
1) Houston Texans
2) Indianapolis Colts
3) Tennessee Titans
4) Jacksonville Jaguars

AFC West:
1) San Diego Chargers
2) Kansas City Chiefs
3) Oakland Raiders
4) Denver Broncos

NFC East:
1) Philadelphia Eagles
2) New York Giants
3) Dallas Cowboys
4) Washington Redskins

NFC North:
1) Green Bay Packers
2) Detroit Lions
3) Chicago Bears
4) Minnesota Vikings

NFC South:
1) Atlanta Falcons
2) New Orleans Saints
3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4) Carolina Panthers

NFC West:
1) St. Louis Rams
2) Arizona Cardinals
3) Seattle Seahawks
4) San Francisco 49ers

SUPER BOWL: Battle of the Birds: Eagles vs. Ravens

Umpire Tensions on the Rise: Part 2

Years ago, umpires could get away with making unfair calls toward managers and players who disrespected them. Nowadays, this would get noticed and the umpire would face possible punishment by the league. Managers realize getting a late inning ejection isn't costly to their team's success; they can watch the game on TV from inside the clubhouse, and have runners relay their late-inning decisions to the acting manager in the dugout. If anything, the only effect of the home team manager getting tossed is that is pumps up the fans, and gets the players' adrenaline going. 

The power of ejecting the players is more meaningful, as this has a direct impact to on-field play. Players are wary of this, which is why the managers often to the arguing for them. The home managers turn the umpires into a target for the fans to jaw at and boo, while making their case regarding the man in blue's call. Everyone has witnessed, or watched at least a few famous outbursts, such as the rather amusing ejection of Mississippi Braves manager Phillip Wellman that was made famous by Sportscenter. Around since the dawn days of baseball, these tirades are an aspect of the game that makes it so amusing to the fans.

However, they are increasing at a rather quick pace, so much that there is now an Umpire Ejection Fantasy League, which has received a few Sportscenter shout-outs as well. Links to more notable/entertaining ejections are below.

- Nationals minor league prodigy Bryce Harper
- Remember Jose Offerman? Here he is getting banned by a Dominican Winter League after this tirade.
- South Georgia Peanuts manager Wally Backman goes overboard. *Warning, explicit content.
- And, of course, Lou Piniella, and his famous Wrigley meltdown.

Part 3 in a few days.

Umpire Tensions on the Rise: Part 1

It's been an issue for over a century. Baseball players, managers, and umpires have simply not gotten along very well. Childish player outbursts that are generally condemned in Little League have become commonplace in the Major Leagues. In the eyes of the players, arguments should be permitted on any call they disagree with. The problem is, players expect calls to be 100% correct. The umpires appear ignorant to fans watching the game at home or in the ballpark, and are not held in high regard by the players, either. The men in blue, well, they seem perfectly fine with tossing players and coaches who yell at them, and don't think twice about it.

In practically every major sport, the athletes have a problem with the men that make the game possible, the guys enforcing the rulebook. Fact is, fans and players take the umpires for granted. A perfect game for an umpire is one where they go unnoticed. The only attention they receive is negative. And sure, umpires make mistakes; they're human. But the good calls they make can seem wrong as well, to the 40,000 home fans that all think they can call the game better.

Part 2 tomorrow.