2012 MLB Predictions at the Break

American League MVP: Josh Hamilton. His incredible power numbers will be able to fend off rookie phenom Mike Trout, who will probably have a few of these awards by the time his career is done.

National League MVP: Andrew McCutchen. Joey Votto has gotten on base more, but Cutch has done everything else more effectively thus far. Even if the power numbers stack up similarly at the end, McCutchen's 25-30 steals and stellar centerfield play will give him the edge over the first baseman. The deciding factor might end up being which team makes the playoffs.

American League Cy Young: Jered Weaver. The popular pick is Justin Verlander, and while he leads Weaver in most pitching statistical categories, Weaver's ERA is 62 points lower (1.96). Pitchers starting off this hot have a tendency to stumble down the stretch (Weaver's ERA on August 5 of last season was 1.78. He finished at 2.41), but I think he'll be able to learn from last year. Another dark horse candidate is 23-year-old Chris Sale, who has posted a 2.19 ERA to go along with a 0.95 WHIP and 98 Ks in 102.2 innings.

National League Cy Young: R.A. Dickey. Even if Johnny Cueto and James McDonald (I have absolutely no clue how they weren't all-stars by the way) finish with slightly better statistics, Dickey will take the award if he keeps pitching as he is. The fact that he is a 37-year-old knuckleballer with a heartwarming story will appeal to voters. I have a feeling that Cueto and McDonald, at 26 and 27 years old respectively, will be in the Cy conversation for years to come.

American League Rookie of the Year: Mike Trout. Yu Darvish or anyone else won't come close.

National League Rookie of the Year: Bryce Harper. I don't know if he'll deserve it, but he'll win nonetheless. There were about 25 guys that should have made the all-star game before he did, but his hype wins out. He's not outhitting the Reds' Todd Frazier, a guy whom many of you probably don't know who he is. Wade Miley, the owner of a 9-5 record and 3.04 ERA, could make things interesting of he keeps things up.

AL East winner: New York Yankees. No one's catching them.

AL Central winner: Chicago White Sox. Youk is coming alive, they've found a diamond in the rough in Jose Quintana, Adam Dunn and Alex Rios are rejuvenated, and Paul Konerko is still hitting the lights out. Robin Ventura's crew should be able to pull off the improbable and hold off Verlander, Prince and the Tigers for the division crown.

AL West winner: Texas Rangers. This division is all but assured of having two playoff teams, as the Angels will probably take a wild card if they can't bounce the Rangers from first place. Texas looks October-ready in July.

AL Wild Cards: Los Angeles Angels and Detroit Tigers. I'm pretty much positive the Angels are going to grab one, but the second spot is up in the air. It's pretty much in between the second-place Central team (White Sox or Tigers) and the Tampa Bay Rays. Detroit looks like they are coming together while the Rays are barely getting by. I think this is the year when the Rays' lack of cash will bite them as they await Evan Longoria's return.

NL East winner: Washington Nationals. I know they had a great core coming in, but still, who would have thought that the Washington Nationals would have the best record in the NL at the break? That's like saying "The Arizona Cardinals are going to the Super Bowl!" from a few years back. Maybe the Nats would compete for a wild card, sure, but not this.

NL Central winner: St. Louis Cardinals. They have the most talent in the division, and it's all but certain the Pirates will fade at least a little bit. As far as the Reds go, if they want to win the division, they are going to need Drew Stubbs (.215/.286/.367) to come alive. It's certainly possible this division is the first in baseball history to have three playoff teams.

NL West winner: San Francisco Giants. The Dodgers are free fallin'. Even Matt Kemp's return won't be able to save them at this point. Despite Tim Lincecum's terribleness, San Fran will take advantage and win the division.

NL Wild Cards: Pittsburgh Pirates and Atlanta Braves. This will be baseball's most intense race. Atlanta is a shoo-in, and Pittsburgh is, well, a gut pick. I want it to happen. The Mets' lack of talent will get to them and they will fade, but the Reds, Cardinals, and Bucs will duke it out until the finish.

Top 25 Baseball Players (1-10)

Don't get this list confused with fantasy rankings. This is simply my rankings for who I believe are the most skilled MLB players heading into the 2012 season. All aspects of the game are taken into account, which could lower the ranking of DHs, bad defensive players, etc. Position value matters as well (center field over first base, etc.)

The top ten will be written in today's post, and the next fifteen will be in tomorrow's.

1) Justin Verlander, P, Detroit Tigers

It's rather difficult to measure pitchers against hitters when valuing players. But in 2011, he dominated the game unlike any other. When a pitcher wins the MVP Award, he deserves it. Verlander's stats last year -- 2.40 ERA, 24-5, 250 K, 251 IP -- make him unmatched by anyone else in baseball, pitcher or batter. Many of the game's greatest hitters left their at-bats against him looking dazed and confused.


2) Matt Kemp, CF, Los Angeles Dodgers

This guy is the definition of a five-tool player. He doesn't just hit for power and average, but he gets on base, too, posting an OBP of .399. And once he's on, he'll steal on you: he swiped 40 bags last year. He's become one of the best home run hitters in the game, something hardly seen out of a centerfielder. And he plays the position exceptionally. Simply put, he does it all.


3) Ryan Braun, LF, Milwaukee Brewers

This ranking disregards the PED allegations, as nothing has been proven yet. The 2011 NL MVP winner had what I thought was the second-best season among NL players, just slightly behind Matt Kemp. When the news came that Braun was the winner, I thought he deserved it, but Kemp's numbers were just a bit more impressive. Braun did do his damage in eleven less games than Kemp (150 to 161), which could justify Braun taking MVP honors.


4) Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels

I'm confident that Pujols' 2012 will be better than his 2011, where he batted a career-low .299. It was the first season of Pujols' career where he failed to reach 100 RBI (he had 99). A telling sign that he'll be back to his normal self is the fact that he hit .355 in September and .353 in October. The $250 million man plays exceptional first base and even steals a few bags. He was 9/10 in swipe attempts last year and has 39 in his last three seasons.


5) Clayton Kershaw, P, Los Angeles Dodgers

Looking for an eventual first-ballot Hall of Famer? If he stays healthy like former prodigy Mark Prior couldn't, Kershaw is your guy. This guy could have, like, a dozen Cy Youngs by the time his career is finished. He's simply incredible. He actually posted a lower ERA than Verlander; that being said, he faced easier hitters. But still, this 23-year-old (yes, he's only 23!) has the makings of an all-time great.


6) Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Detroit Tigers

In my mind, Miggy is the current best hitter in the game. He certainly was last year: he batted .344 with a .448 OBP. What Cabrera should really do if he wants to improve is drop weight and focus on his defense, where he is now a liability at third with Prince Fielder's arrival. Despite a far better year at the plate last year, Cabrera is ranked behind Albert because their defensive ability isn't comparable.


7) Jose Bautista, RF, Toronto Blue Jays

97 home runs in the last two seasons, and by all accounts, steroid free? Impressive. As we put the steroid era behind us, these types of numbers will be unheard of in the coming years. Bautista upped his average 42 points from 2010 last season, batting .302, and he also drew a league-leading 132 walks. As a result, he reached base 45% of the time. While he isn't the fastest guy, he possesses a cannon from right field.


8) Jacoby Ellsbury, CF, Boston Red Sox

Similarly to Jose Bautista, no one was prepared for the 32 home runs Ellsbury slammed last year. He'd he only twenty in his entire career before that, suggesting a decline for the coming season. That being said, he's a five-tooler who definitely has the ability to put up MVP-type numbers. The injuries slowed him down on the bases a bit (39 steals last year, but caught 15 times; as opposed to '09, where he swiped 70 whilst being caught just 12 times), but he can still run with the best of them. And he makes center look effortless.


9) Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees

Cano has put together a number of very good seasons up to this point in his career. But he still hasn't produced that MVP, breakout year everyone's expecting. He's been praised with having the prettiest swing out of any MLB player, and has turned himself into the most dangerous bat in the potent Yankee lineup. A 3000-hit career is certainly a possibility. He has a shortstop's arm at second base coupled with exceptional range. If there was a complaint about Cano, it would be his lackadaisical effort when running out ground balls.


10) Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Boston Red Sox

Having protection in the lineup did wonders for Gonzo last year, as he hit a career-best .338. His power numbers should be up a little this coming year from last season's 27. He fields his position well, and committed just four errors from the corner.


11-25 tomorrow. Including Troy Tulowitzki, Roy Halladay, Joey Votto, Prince Fielder, Cliff Lee, Justin Upton, and others.

Onto the Postseason: MLB Division Series Projections

The Rays gather around home plate to welcome Evan Longoria, whose walk-off last night propelled Tampa into the Postseason.

You've probably heard what transpired last night in Major League Baseball, a night that was probably the most thrilling ever in regular season history. Following the collapses of the Red Sox and Braves, there is more baseball to be played.


Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers
Prediction: Rangers in four.

Yes, the Rays have a lot of fight in them, and their September run was riveting. But momentum doesn't always carry over, and overall the Rangers are the better team. Texas' superb offense, which ranked third in baseball with 855 runs, just won't be contained enough for the Rays to win the series. And the Rangers have a solid enough rotation that they should be able to contain the average Tampa offense enough to have the advantage on the scoreboard.

Tampa Bay also has rotation issues, as David Price just pitched yesterday, and James Shields won't be able to start until Game 2. Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, and even rookie Matt Moore are being considered by manager Joe Maddon for the Game 1 nod. Niemann and Davis both have ERAs over four, and Moore has only pitched 9.1 innings of major league ball in his entire career. But, hey, with the Rays, anything is possible.


Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees
Prediction: Yankees in five.

The Tigers are actually the favored by many people across the country; an ESPN SportsNation poll had 63% of the country picking the Tigers to win the series. Detroit does have a slightly better one-two punch in their rotation, sporting Justin Verlander and Doug Fister, who both have ERAs lower than CC Sabathia's 3.00. Ivan Nova will start Game 2 for the Yankees.

The reason 63% of the country has picked Detroit to win this series is because of one person: sure-to-be AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander. But in baseball, one pitcher simply can't win a series by himself. CC Sabathia has the skills to match Verlander pitch for pitch. Considering games one and four a toss-up is reasonable, since New York has the edge at the plate.


Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Brewers in four.

Only the Phillies sport a more solid postseason rotation than the Brewers. Milwaukee should be able to shoot down Arizona's offensive core (Justin Upton) fairly easily.

That being said, the Diamondbacks are very relatable to last year's Giants. They have a triple-A call-up playing first base for them. Their ace and 21 game winner Ian Kennedy was written off by the Yankees organization just a few years ago. They didn't have postseason aspirations at the start of the season. Yet somehow, they have chugged along to an improbable 94 wins and an NL West crown that was supposed to be won by the Giants or Rockies.

You can't write off the D'Backs. It's just too hard to pick them to get past Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder and the all-in Brewers. It's championship or bust with Fielder likely out following this postseason, and Milwaukee will come out with full force.


St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Phillies in four.

The Phillies would have been better off losing to Atlanta last night, oddly enough. For one, St. Louis is a tougher matchup than division foe Atlanta, a team they were able to take care of this year. An Atlanta win also would have forced a playoff, resulting in the winning team being fatigued and without their ace to start the series.

All of that aside, Philly is still the favorite. We all know why. Heck, they have Vance Worley, a guy who went 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA on the year, coming out of the bullpen. Whether Roy Oswalt will even start remains to be seen. The rotation is just unfair.

The only thing stopping the Phils from winning it all this fall will be an offensive letdown, something this veteran crew is subject to. It happened last year against the Giants, and resulted in a postseason exit.

Well, that, or a surging Albert Pujols, who is coming off a .355 September. Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday just so happen to be pretty good as well. While the Cards are capable of putting up runs against anyone, Philly should be able to contain them just enough to move on.