2012 MLB Predictions at the Break

American League MVP: Josh Hamilton. His incredible power numbers will be able to fend off rookie phenom Mike Trout, who will probably have a few of these awards by the time his career is done.

National League MVP: Andrew McCutchen. Joey Votto has gotten on base more, but Cutch has done everything else more effectively thus far. Even if the power numbers stack up similarly at the end, McCutchen's 25-30 steals and stellar centerfield play will give him the edge over the first baseman. The deciding factor might end up being which team makes the playoffs.

American League Cy Young: Jered Weaver. The popular pick is Justin Verlander, and while he leads Weaver in most pitching statistical categories, Weaver's ERA is 62 points lower (1.96). Pitchers starting off this hot have a tendency to stumble down the stretch (Weaver's ERA on August 5 of last season was 1.78. He finished at 2.41), but I think he'll be able to learn from last year. Another dark horse candidate is 23-year-old Chris Sale, who has posted a 2.19 ERA to go along with a 0.95 WHIP and 98 Ks in 102.2 innings.

National League Cy Young: R.A. Dickey. Even if Johnny Cueto and James McDonald (I have absolutely no clue how they weren't all-stars by the way) finish with slightly better statistics, Dickey will take the award if he keeps pitching as he is. The fact that he is a 37-year-old knuckleballer with a heartwarming story will appeal to voters. I have a feeling that Cueto and McDonald, at 26 and 27 years old respectively, will be in the Cy conversation for years to come.

American League Rookie of the Year: Mike Trout. Yu Darvish or anyone else won't come close.

National League Rookie of the Year: Bryce Harper. I don't know if he'll deserve it, but he'll win nonetheless. There were about 25 guys that should have made the all-star game before he did, but his hype wins out. He's not outhitting the Reds' Todd Frazier, a guy whom many of you probably don't know who he is. Wade Miley, the owner of a 9-5 record and 3.04 ERA, could make things interesting of he keeps things up.

AL East winner: New York Yankees. No one's catching them.

AL Central winner: Chicago White Sox. Youk is coming alive, they've found a diamond in the rough in Jose Quintana, Adam Dunn and Alex Rios are rejuvenated, and Paul Konerko is still hitting the lights out. Robin Ventura's crew should be able to pull off the improbable and hold off Verlander, Prince and the Tigers for the division crown.

AL West winner: Texas Rangers. This division is all but assured of having two playoff teams, as the Angels will probably take a wild card if they can't bounce the Rangers from first place. Texas looks October-ready in July.

AL Wild Cards: Los Angeles Angels and Detroit Tigers. I'm pretty much positive the Angels are going to grab one, but the second spot is up in the air. It's pretty much in between the second-place Central team (White Sox or Tigers) and the Tampa Bay Rays. Detroit looks like they are coming together while the Rays are barely getting by. I think this is the year when the Rays' lack of cash will bite them as they await Evan Longoria's return.

NL East winner: Washington Nationals. I know they had a great core coming in, but still, who would have thought that the Washington Nationals would have the best record in the NL at the break? That's like saying "The Arizona Cardinals are going to the Super Bowl!" from a few years back. Maybe the Nats would compete for a wild card, sure, but not this.

NL Central winner: St. Louis Cardinals. They have the most talent in the division, and it's all but certain the Pirates will fade at least a little bit. As far as the Reds go, if they want to win the division, they are going to need Drew Stubbs (.215/.286/.367) to come alive. It's certainly possible this division is the first in baseball history to have three playoff teams.

NL West winner: San Francisco Giants. The Dodgers are free fallin'. Even Matt Kemp's return won't be able to save them at this point. Despite Tim Lincecum's terribleness, San Fran will take advantage and win the division.

NL Wild Cards: Pittsburgh Pirates and Atlanta Braves. This will be baseball's most intense race. Atlanta is a shoo-in, and Pittsburgh is, well, a gut pick. I want it to happen. The Mets' lack of talent will get to them and they will fade, but the Reds, Cardinals, and Bucs will duke it out until the finish.

Onto the Postseason: MLB Division Series Projections

The Rays gather around home plate to welcome Evan Longoria, whose walk-off last night propelled Tampa into the Postseason.

You've probably heard what transpired last night in Major League Baseball, a night that was probably the most thrilling ever in regular season history. Following the collapses of the Red Sox and Braves, there is more baseball to be played.


Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers
Prediction: Rangers in four.

Yes, the Rays have a lot of fight in them, and their September run was riveting. But momentum doesn't always carry over, and overall the Rangers are the better team. Texas' superb offense, which ranked third in baseball with 855 runs, just won't be contained enough for the Rays to win the series. And the Rangers have a solid enough rotation that they should be able to contain the average Tampa offense enough to have the advantage on the scoreboard.

Tampa Bay also has rotation issues, as David Price just pitched yesterday, and James Shields won't be able to start until Game 2. Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, and even rookie Matt Moore are being considered by manager Joe Maddon for the Game 1 nod. Niemann and Davis both have ERAs over four, and Moore has only pitched 9.1 innings of major league ball in his entire career. But, hey, with the Rays, anything is possible.


Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees
Prediction: Yankees in five.

The Tigers are actually the favored by many people across the country; an ESPN SportsNation poll had 63% of the country picking the Tigers to win the series. Detroit does have a slightly better one-two punch in their rotation, sporting Justin Verlander and Doug Fister, who both have ERAs lower than CC Sabathia's 3.00. Ivan Nova will start Game 2 for the Yankees.

The reason 63% of the country has picked Detroit to win this series is because of one person: sure-to-be AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander. But in baseball, one pitcher simply can't win a series by himself. CC Sabathia has the skills to match Verlander pitch for pitch. Considering games one and four a toss-up is reasonable, since New York has the edge at the plate.


Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Brewers in four.

Only the Phillies sport a more solid postseason rotation than the Brewers. Milwaukee should be able to shoot down Arizona's offensive core (Justin Upton) fairly easily.

That being said, the Diamondbacks are very relatable to last year's Giants. They have a triple-A call-up playing first base for them. Their ace and 21 game winner Ian Kennedy was written off by the Yankees organization just a few years ago. They didn't have postseason aspirations at the start of the season. Yet somehow, they have chugged along to an improbable 94 wins and an NL West crown that was supposed to be won by the Giants or Rockies.

You can't write off the D'Backs. It's just too hard to pick them to get past Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder and the all-in Brewers. It's championship or bust with Fielder likely out following this postseason, and Milwaukee will come out with full force.


St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Phillies in four.

The Phillies would have been better off losing to Atlanta last night, oddly enough. For one, St. Louis is a tougher matchup than division foe Atlanta, a team they were able to take care of this year. An Atlanta win also would have forced a playoff, resulting in the winning team being fatigued and without their ace to start the series.

All of that aside, Philly is still the favorite. We all know why. Heck, they have Vance Worley, a guy who went 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA on the year, coming out of the bullpen. Whether Roy Oswalt will even start remains to be seen. The rotation is just unfair.

The only thing stopping the Phils from winning it all this fall will be an offensive letdown, something this veteran crew is subject to. It happened last year against the Giants, and resulted in a postseason exit.

Well, that, or a surging Albert Pujols, who is coming off a .355 September. Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday just so happen to be pretty good as well. While the Cards are capable of putting up runs against anyone, Philly should be able to contain them just enough to move on.

Down to the Wire

Story of Red Sox' September: Here, Jacoby Ellsbury can't make catch, resulting in Robert Andino inside-the-park HR

The Red Sox and Braves have folded when it matters most. But they're not out. Once far and away the two wild card leaders, these two ballclubs have fallen apart down the stretch and have put themselves in must-win situations against teams that aren't playing for anything. With only two games left for all four teams, the Red Sox, Braves, Rays and Cardinals will duke it out for the right to play on into October.

On the first day of September, the Boston Red Sox led the Tampa Bay Rays by nine games, and were actually a half game up on the Yankees for the AL East lead. It was almost a given Boston was in and would be a major threat to take the title to Beantown. While it is still a possibility, a 6-18 month is not a way to get that going. On the other hand, the Rays have played steadily, going 15-9 in September en route to tying the Sox. Now, Boston plays their final two games against the basement dwelling Orioles, who have had a knack for beating contending teams recently. The Rays finish against the AL's top seed, the Yankees, who don't have anything to play for and are starting relief pitchers. If the Sox and Rays finish with the same record, get ready for another Game 163.

The Cardinals have played themselves back into contention but will need some help from the 100-win Phillies to play on. Still a game back on the Braves with two left, the Cards need to take care of the Astros and hope the Phils beat the Braves at least once to stay alive. Going 8-16 this September, like the Red Sox the Braves are also on the verge of a historic collapse.

About five weeks ago I wrote a blog post stating if baseball wanted September races, second place team would have to have extraordinary Septembers. That didn't necessarily happen; while the Rays and Cards have certainly played well, much of the end-of-season urgency can be largely attributed to the slides by the Sox and Braves.

2011: A September to Remember?

Take a glance at the MLB standings. There is currently just one, yes, one, race for the postseason going on right now with just over a week until the final month of the MLB season. It's not the Yankees and Red Sox; they are currently just half a game apart, but the runner-up is almost sure to win the wild card. Only the NL West has two teams vying for one spot at the moment, as the Diamondbacks are trying to stave off the defending champs, the Giants.

With the exception of those four teams, all of the other division's top two games are at least four games apart. Unless the Angels or Indians have one last run in them, the division races aren't going to be much of anything. The Indians don't seem like they have anything left to catch the Tigers. They just do not have the offensive firepower needed to put together a September run. The Angels are trailing defending AL pennant winner Texas, who is 7-3 in their last ten games. I don't see the Rangers collapsing, either. And in the NL, St. Louis has almost no shot to catch the surging Brewers, who have quickly built up a massive nine game cushion.

This is the first season I can remember with essentially no wild card races. It is basically set in stone that the Braves will get the final NL spot, and the Yankees/Red Sox will in the AL. The Braves are too far away to challenge the Phillies and too far ahead of the pack in the NL (eight games) to be challenged themselves.

For teams that find themselves up with a few weeks to go (the Phillies), September can be used to rest starters and give the call-ups a shot in the bigs. The same can be said for all of baseball's bottom dwellers. This season, there is an awful lot of them.

As a baseball fan, I hope the Indians and Angels can make the home stretch a contest like the Tigers and Twins did just a few years ago. Remember Game 163 that was played? It's what makes September the month full of nail-biting action that it is known to be. For the fun to happen this year, a few teams need to step it up.

Why the MLB Postseason is Perfect Right Now

Think of the NBA playoffs. More than half of the league makes it; and the last few teams in the east are usually below .500. For the decent teams, all the regular season is is a matter of seeding. That isn't the way a pro sport should be.
  
Baseball, on the other hand, is quite the contrary. Making the playoffs is much more difficult, as only 8 teams of 30 do so. It causes annual division and wild-card races, fights to the very end. Remember 2009's Game 163 between the Twins and Tigers? The intensity? That doesn't exist in basketball. Oh, look, the Bobcats are 6 games below .500 and the Pacers are 5 games below, this will be a good race! No. The postseason should be a reward for the league's premier teams, not for everyone who isn't terrible.
   
This is why Bud Selig should leave the MLB playoffs just as they are and not add more wild-card teams. There's no need. A longer postseason would just have it drag on and have fans lose interest, like I do with basketball. By the time the finals roll around, fans have shifted to baseball. Like they should.