Monday, March 12, 2012

Prepare for the Finale

The pencils are out (pens if we're overconfident) for this March's tournament, with as little confidence in our bracket predictions as always. Last year I essentially got lucky with my selections, finishing in the top 2,000 for the entire country on ESPN's Tournament Challenge. The event had over nine million entrants, and I will never finish with as high a result again. I will proudly say, though, that my bracket generated more points than every talking head on the selection shows.

I didn't have any money invested in that bracket.

Looking at this year's field, there is really only one legitimate snub: the Drexel Dragons. It's a shame teams like West Virginia and USF get in simply because they are in a power conference, and maybe have a few more top 50 wins. But let's face it: coming down the stretch, Drexel was as hot as anyone: they had nineteen straight wins until they ran into tournament-bound VCU, and lost in a heartbreaker. They basically accomplished down the stretch what Murray St. did with that 23-0 streak to start the year, which ranked them in the top ten. Sure, the strength of Drexel's schedule was lousy, but watching them play VCU in the Colonial Championship sure made me a believer they could make some noise come tourney time.

The Iona Gaels enter as last year's VCU: the team no one thought should be in. Many claim they stole the spot that should have gone to Drexel, and there is really no argument against it. The Gaels are a dark horse, and if they get through BYU in the play-in, could potentially give heavy favorite Marquette some trouble. Iona's roster features star forward Mike Glover (18.5 ppg, 9 rpg, 64.4 field goal %), and the dazzling passer Scott Machado, who leads the nation averaging ten assists a night. Don't sleep on the Gaels.

A great matchup that I really hate is Wichita State vs. VCU. This would be a pleasure to see in the Sweet Sixteen, but having it in the first round bothers me. Wichita State should be seeded higher, probably a four, and VCU is extremely dangerous as a twelve. Both of these teams have plenty of potential, and it's a shame that one will make an early exit. As is, I have VCU upsetting both Wichita and Indiana, but falling to Kentucky in the Sweet Sixteen. How great would it be to see VCU knock off the one-and-dones (UK), if Iowa State or UConn can't pull it off first.

Remember "Who's Kilpatrick?" If you don't know what I'm talking about, don't worry about it. But teams, particularly ACC champ Florida State, should watch out for Mike Cronin's Bearcats, a team coming in hot after a run to the Big East final. As a six, they are my lowest seeded Elite Eight team, though I could just as easily see them falling to Texas in the first round.

Here's where I lose my credibility: my upsets. My bracket features Long Beach State in the Sweet Sixteen. Yes, I am aware they need to get past New Mexico and probably Louisville, but I picked it to happen anyway. I have Murray State getting past Marquette, and I wouldn't be surprised if they knocked off Missouri as well. I have a seemingly always dangerous Belmont team getting past Georgetown (ever notice how the Big East teams always make unusually early exits every year?), as well as Harvard over Vandy and Wisconsin.

I usually fill out my bracket not having the slightest clue of my selection to win until I see the matchups. Michigan State wasn't even one of the teams that crossed my mind until I sat there satisfied with a complete bracket. In a Final Four that features Baylor, State, Kansas, and Cuse, Izzo's bunch ends up winning in my crazy edition. If you haven't noticed, Michigan State always comes in far from a favorite, but always executes in extraordinary fashion. With one of the nation's toughest schedules to prepare them, Draymond Green and the Spartans are a force to be reckoned with.

Why do I have Baylor in the Final Four? Quincy Miller, Quincy Acy, and Perry Jones III give the somewhat under-performing Bears the most talented team on paper. Basically, I am banking on the fact that they get hot at the right time. And none of their matchups really scare me. They should dispatch of South Dakota State, UNLV/Colorado, and Duke if they don't hit all their threes, fairly easily.

But that can only be assumed, as with all else come March Madness.

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