Prepare for the Finale

The pencils are out (pens if we're overconfident) for this March's tournament, with as little confidence in our bracket predictions as always. Last year I essentially got lucky with my selections, finishing in the top 2,000 for the entire country on ESPN's Tournament Challenge. The event had over nine million entrants, and I will never finish with as high a result again. I will proudly say, though, that my bracket generated more points than every talking head on the selection shows.

I didn't have any money invested in that bracket.

Looking at this year's field, there is really only one legitimate snub: the Drexel Dragons. It's a shame teams like West Virginia and USF get in simply because they are in a power conference, and maybe have a few more top 50 wins. But let's face it: coming down the stretch, Drexel was as hot as anyone: they had nineteen straight wins until they ran into tournament-bound VCU, and lost in a heartbreaker. They basically accomplished down the stretch what Murray St. did with that 23-0 streak to start the year, which ranked them in the top ten. Sure, the strength of Drexel's schedule was lousy, but watching them play VCU in the Colonial Championship sure made me a believer they could make some noise come tourney time.

The Iona Gaels enter as last year's VCU: the team no one thought should be in. Many claim they stole the spot that should have gone to Drexel, and there is really no argument against it. The Gaels are a dark horse, and if they get through BYU in the play-in, could potentially give heavy favorite Marquette some trouble. Iona's roster features star forward Mike Glover (18.5 ppg, 9 rpg, 64.4 field goal %), and the dazzling passer Scott Machado, who leads the nation averaging ten assists a night. Don't sleep on the Gaels.

A great matchup that I really hate is Wichita State vs. VCU. This would be a pleasure to see in the Sweet Sixteen, but having it in the first round bothers me. Wichita State should be seeded higher, probably a four, and VCU is extremely dangerous as a twelve. Both of these teams have plenty of potential, and it's a shame that one will make an early exit. As is, I have VCU upsetting both Wichita and Indiana, but falling to Kentucky in the Sweet Sixteen. How great would it be to see VCU knock off the one-and-dones (UK), if Iowa State or UConn can't pull it off first.

Remember "Who's Kilpatrick?" If you don't know what I'm talking about, don't worry about it. But teams, particularly ACC champ Florida State, should watch out for Mike Cronin's Bearcats, a team coming in hot after a run to the Big East final. As a six, they are my lowest seeded Elite Eight team, though I could just as easily see them falling to Texas in the first round.

Here's where I lose my credibility: my upsets. My bracket features Long Beach State in the Sweet Sixteen. Yes, I am aware they need to get past New Mexico and probably Louisville, but I picked it to happen anyway. I have Murray State getting past Marquette, and I wouldn't be surprised if they knocked off Missouri as well. I have a seemingly always dangerous Belmont team getting past Georgetown (ever notice how the Big East teams always make unusually early exits every year?), as well as Harvard over Vandy and Wisconsin.

I usually fill out my bracket not having the slightest clue of my selection to win until I see the matchups. Michigan State wasn't even one of the teams that crossed my mind until I sat there satisfied with a complete bracket. In a Final Four that features Baylor, State, Kansas, and Cuse, Izzo's bunch ends up winning in my crazy edition. If you haven't noticed, Michigan State always comes in far from a favorite, but always executes in extraordinary fashion. With one of the nation's toughest schedules to prepare them, Draymond Green and the Spartans are a force to be reckoned with.

Why do I have Baylor in the Final Four? Quincy Miller, Quincy Acy, and Perry Jones III give the somewhat under-performing Bears the most talented team on paper. Basically, I am banking on the fact that they get hot at the right time. And none of their matchups really scare me. They should dispatch of South Dakota State, UNLV/Colorado, and Duke if they don't hit all their threes, fairly easily.

But that can only be assumed, as with all else come March Madness.

Why Play Seven?

The Bulls and Heat are already up 3-0 in their playoff series. The Celtics have a chance to go up 3-0 over the Knicks tonight. There is seemingly no chance for a team down three games to none to come back and win the series by taking four straight games. In fact, no team has ever come back from being down three games to none. Yet we still have to wait the three days in between games to see a game four, and maybe if the underdog finally pulls out a win see a game five, until the favorite finishes them off a week later. History suggests a 3-0 series has already been decided (as does watching the unevenly matched Heat and Sixers). But because of the 7-7-7-7 playoff format, more basketball, almost as meaningless as the last month of the regular season to some teams, has to be played.

The NBA would never consider shortening at least the first round, simply because of revenue. More games equals more cash. But from a competition standpoint, following baseball and making the first round a best-of-five would be an improvement (or even best-of-three, but that would be a little far-fetched).

In the first round of the NBA Playoffs, there are really only two evenly-matched series: the four versus the five seed. As a result there are not many upsets, and many of the series are decided before they begin. Do not try and think the Heat weren't already thinking about the Celtics in Round 2 when they stepped on their home floor for the opener against Philly. But, nonetheless, LeBron, Wade, and crew have to knock off the under-matched Sixers four times to move past them. Miami would have won a best of one, three, or five game series. If the first round changed to five games, the victor would still, in most cases, be the same.

By the time the NBA Finals roll around in mid-June, the playoffs seem to have lost much of their momentum.  Much of people's interest has shifted to baseball, now in full swing, or just lost interest the same way they did at the conclusion of the regular season. The excitement just isn't always there anymore, because of the lengthiness. By the Finals the games obviously have significant meaning, but it's the middle of June and it just does not seem like basketball season. Which is why shortening the postseason makes sense. In the first round, there would not be as many game fours and fives feeling like the regular season. There would be more sense of urgency and teams playing with their backs against a wall, like in the NCAA Tournament.

Of course, another solution could just be to cut the number of playoff teams...

UConn Alone on Top

It was about as ugly as it gets. But someone had to come out on top in last night's 2011 NCAA Men's College Basketball National Championship, and the UConn Huskies rose to the occasion, knocking off the Butler Bulldogs.  It was the third championship for coach Jim Calhoun, just the fifth coach to do so. He joined the elite company of John Wooden, Adolph Rupp, Mike Krzyzewski, and Bob Knight.  At 68, Calhoun is the oldest coach to ever win a national championship.

Butler certainly had the heart, hustle and defense required to win the final game, but they simply could not make shots. Brad Stevens' team shot a championship record-low 18.8% from the field in the 53-41 loss. They made only three, yes, three two-point field goals in the whole entire game. For the night they shot a miserable 12-64, including 9-33 from beyond the arc. Some of Butler's shooting woes should certainly be credited to the stifling defense from the Huskies, but it was also just an off night. Butler center Andrew Smith repeatedly missed easy layups, as well as star and future pro guard Shelvin Mack. Matt Howard could not find his stroke either, shooting just 1-13, the only make coming from beyond.

Coming in, Butler supposedly had the edge on the bench. However, the reserve unit had all of two points on the night, courtesy of two made free throws from former starter Ronald Nored. Aside from the shooting, though, Butler really did not play that awfully. They only turned the ball over six times and forced eleven. However, a key point in the game would be the rebounding battle, which was won by UConn, 51-40. Butler played exceptional defense until the end neared, when they switched into the zone for one of the first ever times. This was them basically holding up the white flag, and was an attempt to speed up the game as a desperation attempt.

Kemba Walker by no means played his best game on the biggest stage, but what he did was enough. He went without an assist on the night, but scored sixteen and pulled down nine boards. Jeremy Lamb was the X-factor for UConn, being able to shoot over the shorter Butler D using his long frame, and frequently contest Butler shot attempts. The freshman finished with twelve points. Big man Alex Oriakhi outplayed Matt Howard, recording the only double-double for either side, with eleven points and eleven boards.

Going into halftime Butler appeared to have most of the momentum after a tough three at the buzzer for Shelvin Mack. Though they led just 22-19, they looked in great shape heading into the second half. Supposedly the six field goals they had scored was just a fluke, and in the second half both teams would come out more sure-handed. But it was not to be. Butler would have a streak of 13:26 with only one made field goal, and again have just six for the second half as well. Their woeful shooting doomed them in their chance at redemption, coming oh-so-close (a bounce on a Gordon Hayward time-expiring shot, in fact) just a year ago. While Connecticut rejoices, Brad Stevens and Butler ponder what could have been, while aspiring for yet another opportunity to pull down the net this coming season.

2011: The Year of the Improbable Final Four

Butler's Matt Howard

Connecticut, Kentucky, Virginia Commonwealth, Butler. Not the Final Four most of us predicted, or would have even thought possible. Many said (myself included) that one of the teams, VCU, should not have even been selected into the tournament in the first place. And judging by their regular season resume, they indeed should not have. Butler returns as a Cinderella for the second consecutive year, being an inch or two from knocking Duke off in the championship game a year ago and becoming national champions. In order to do it this time around, they will have to knock off the suddenly surging Rams of VCU, then upset one of the big name schools, the winner of UConn and Kentucky, in the championship game.

By now your bracket may have already been through the paper shredder, possibly just after the first round. You're not alone. As you may already know, this was possibly the worst bracket year ever. Two Final Four teams probably wins you your pool. Some pool winners might only have one correctly picked Final Four team. After all, there is only ONE bracket of the almost six million on ESPN's Tournament Challenge that have all four selected correctly. The wild card causing this was VCU, who had no impressive victories in the regular season and had to begin their Road to the Final Four with a play-in game against USC. After knocking off the No. 1 seed Kansas Jayhawks this past weekend, Jamie Skeen and the VCU Rams are one of the last four standing, their improbable journey not yet completed.

Apart from the team, university and its fans, who has enjoyed this VCU run the most? Probably the selection committee's chairman, Ohio St. A.D. Gene Smith. Why? The bracket his committee unveiled was criticized to no end (see my post from March 10, Let the Madness Begin, where I was also critical of the committee's selections), because of the admittance of VCU and UAB in place of Colorado and Virginia Tech for the final at-large bids. ESPN's Jay Bilas called this "a joke", and college basketball analysts and fans across the country were in an uproar. But boy, has VCU ever proved them all wrong. Sure, UAB went on to haplessly fall in the play-in, and maybe Colorado should have made it in to the tourney instead of them, but VCU's admittance into the Dance was meant to be. The Rams have made Smith and the committee look like geniuses.

VCU seems to play better on short rest, when teams have less time to prepare. Lacking the athleticism and pure skill of the teams they have knocked out, they find ways to win in other ways, such as moving the ball around for open threes. Other teams have not had a chance to see them play much, and only a day or so to prepare, so they do not know what to expect. The only team that came close to beating VCU was the 10th-seeded Florida St. Seminoles, who had the multiple days in between the first two rounds and the Sweet Sixteen to prepare. Butler will have an entire week, and I am sure few will be taken aback if the Bulldogs advance one again to the finale.

National Player of the Year candidate Kemba Walker leads the charge for UConn as they face Brandon Knight and the young guns of Kentucky. Most people had Kentucky losing to Ohio State on their bracket (I boldly went with Kentucky in one of the few picks I got right). UConn, the Big East champ, was a favorite along with Duke out of the West region. While UConn is the favorite, based on the way Kentucky has played recently this game is essentially a toss-up, and an argument could be made for either squad.

Most of this country will be cheering loudly for the mid-major to knock of the big-name school on April 4 in Houston for the conclusion of *arguably* the greatest postseason all of sports has to offer. Does either VCU or Butler have enough left in the tank to pull out two more Ws? Or will this year be a repeat of the last, where Goliath gets the best of David? We'll know next week.

High Hopes and Heartbreak This March

March Madness never seems to disappoint. After just the first few hours of the actual tournament (those play-ins don't count), the upsets and down to the last shot finishes are already underway. I mean, Princeton is giving Kentucky a run for their money as I write this. It doesn't get any better than that.

As I mentioned it would be in my previous post, the Temple vs. Penn State matchup was one to watch. It was close throughout, and with just a second left, Juan Fernandez hit a leaner to give Temple a victory over their in-state foe. Fernandez and Ramone Moore both scored 23 to give the Owls their first tournament win since 2001. Highly praised coach Fran Dunphy had lost his previous eleven tourney games at Temple and Penn, an NCAA record, before today's win.

Last year's unexpected finalists, the Butler Bulldogs, needed a buzzer-beating tip-in by big man Matt Howard to advance past Old Dominion. Most people picked ODU in their brackets, but Butler got the bounce they needed this time as they were able to prevail. If they had gotten it last year, they would be the defending champs. Howard's last-second shot was over the 6'11" Frank Hassell, who led the Monarchs with 20 points.

The first upset came at the expense of the Louisville Cardinals, who fell to the Eagles of Morehead State. In a game tied at halftime and tightly contested throughout, it took a 3-pointer from Demonte Harper with 4.2 seconds left to seal the deal. Louisville's last desperation attempt was a Mike Marra three attempt that was rejected by Morehead star and NBA-bound center Kenneth Faried.

And it's now official. Kentucky was able to hold off Princeton 59-57. All of these games exemplify why March Madness is the greatest event all of organized sports has to offer.

Let the Madness Begin

It's arguably the most exciting event in sports. From the magical Cinderella runs of St. Joe's and George Mason to the heartbreak Kansas experienced last year when losing in the second round to mid-major Northern Iowa, college basketball's Big Dance is a six-step journey to the summit every coach and player yearns for. Yes, March Madness is upon us once again, with this year featuring an almost entirely unpredictable, somewhat flawed field. There is a lack of a "great team" this March, and a wide range of plausible champions for your 2011 bracket. So sit back starting tomorrow, and let the madness begin.

Everyone is aware of the fact that this year's Tournament Selection Committee didn't do such a fine job deciding on this year's bracket. It is tough to find a reason why Colorado, who beat a five seed Kansas State three times, a four seed Texas, and another tournament team in Missouri was left out of the Dance, while VCU and UAB were selected almost out of nowhere. UAB only played one ranked team in Duke, and got blown out. They are also coming off a loss against East Carolina, a team that only managed a .500 record in the weak C-USA. The only tournament team UAB has a win against is (wait for it) VCU, and it was only a three-point margin. VCU lost six games in the CAA, and only beat one tournament team in the automatic bid Wofford. They have some terrible losses against the likes of South Florida, Georgia State, Northeastern (yes, not Northwestern), Drexel, and James Madison. Virginia Tech is also headed to the NIT in order to make way for these teams, even though they have a win over the one seed Duke, and near wins against Purdue and North Carolina. It's a shame to see Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen be snubbed for the second straight year. It's just hard to believe that if UAB or VCU played either Virginia Tech or Colorado, they would win. The committee is supposed to select the 37 best teams for at-large bids, and they seemingly failed to do that in this situation.

Also a topic of discussion: Why are the Florida Gators a two seed? They fell to Kentucky the last two times the sides have seem each other, and Kentucky is two seeds below them, at a reasonable four seed. Florida should be a four as well. Florida is in the Southeast Division, which is supposedly the easiest and Pittsburgh's for the taking. There has been criticism of the fact that Pitt is the third number one seed but has a much easier road to the Final Four than overall number one Ohio State. The Buckeyes were treated as a fourth number one should be, being placed in the stacked East, which includes North Carolina, Syracuse, and Kentucky. All four of these teams are capable of going all the way. Pittsburgh's division includes an overseeded Florida at number two, a crippled BYU team as the three seed (having lost Brandon Davies), and a Wisconsin team coming off of a performance in which they scored just 33 points against Penn State. While the Southeast is indisputably weak, it does feature St. John's, who, led by Dwight Hardy and including eight other seniors, have proven they can beat any team in the country.

An intriguing first round (technically second round with this new play-in format) matchup is the in-state battle between Temple and Penn State. Temple, led by their backcourt of Ramone Moore and Juan Fernandez, and big man Lavoy Allen, try to advance against the Nittany Lions and under six foot, yet bighearted Talor Battle, who led his team to the Big Ten final. Another game to pay attention to is Belmont vs. Wisconsin, a matchup in which many have the mid-major and its high-powered offense prevailing over the fourth-seeded Badgers. Many believe that Texas has the roster to advance deep into the tourney, but getting past its first game will be tough: they have to go up against the Oakland Golden Grizzlies and star center Keith Benson, who has an NBA future. Picked by some to win the whole thing, Texas finds itself on Upset Alert.

The possible analysis on this tournament could be never-ending, but a guarantee is this: 2011's March Madness will be a fun ride. If there is to be a storybook ending like the one Butler came just a bounce away from only a year ago, this is the year. So fill out your bracket and try to win that $500 from your business pool, but the likely winner this year is the secretary picking teams to advance based on their mascots.