Happy Thanksgiving! NFL Picks and More

Houston Texans vs. Detroit Lions

The Lions have lost their last eight Thanksgiving games. Well, it's about to be nine. It's not going to be the blowout everyone is projecting though. Sure, the Texans are 9-1, but they just escaped the pitiful Jaguars by a six point margin. The Lions, though vastly underachieving expectations thus far, are eons better than the Jags. And they're fighting for their playoff hopes, something the Texans have essentially locked up already. This game is going to be a barn burner, and the only way the Lions come out victorious is if Matt Stafford protects the football and connects with Megatron multiple times. Prediction: Texans 27, Lions 24


Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys

At just 5-5, the Cowboys sit just one game behind the Giants in the disappointing NFC East. They've beaten all the teams they should have (Tampa Bay, Carolina, Philly, Cleveland) and lost to the NFL's more impressive teams (Seattle, Chicago, Baltimore, Atlanta). The Redskins fall into the first category. On Washington's side, Robert Griffin III is coming off a game in which he posted a perfect 158.3 QB rating, albeit against an Eagles D in shambles. Neither of these two teams have been impressive, but someone has to win. I'll go out on a limb and predict Washington on a game winning drive. Tony Romo will do his team in with one too many turnovers, nothing new. Prediction: Redskins 24, Cowboys 20

New England Patriots vs. New York Jets

I'm going to be watching A Charlie Brown Thanksgiving during this game. The Jets aren't even worth writing about. They're the only team you're going to hear about in all three games' pregame shows. And the Patriots are going to trash them. Prediction: Patriots 34, Jets 13

And in other NFL news: All this San Francisco QB controversy business may be true, but I'm of the opinion Jim Harbaugh is just claiming he's unsure of his starter so the Saints spend half of their walkthroughs preparing for Colin Kaepernick, when Alex Smith is going to be the one playing.

Changing gears to college basketball, here is the box score of the game in which Division III Grinnell College's Jack Taylor scored 138 points. Look up Grinnell's offensive philosophy if you want to know how this was possible. Basically, coach David Arseneault runs a system in which he expects his team to pop fifty threes a game, and he recruits almost entirely sharpshooting guards. But still, 138 points is 138 points.

For your enjoyment, if you haven't watched the entire version yet and have only seen the TV version, here is the full Uncle Drew Pepsi MAX commercial. There's a part two that features Kevin Love.

Have a happy Thanksgiving. Here's a suggestion: put chocolate chips in the pumpkin bread. Trust me.

Week 10 NFL Projections

Last week: 8-6
Season: 80-33

New Orleans Saints 27, Atlanta Falcons 20

Atlanta has been vulnerable to the pass thus far, and the quarterback of the Saints is named Drew Brees. The Falcons are one of the better teams at stifling the run, but New Orleans doesn't run much anyway. At just 1-3 against winning teams so far, the Falcons haven't proven that they can beat elite teams in the league yet, so the Saints present a matchup that Ryan and crew will have a difficult time overcoming.

Pittsburgh Steelers 20, Cincinnati Bengals 13

The Bengals' 6-2 record looks pretty on paper, but it is really just a product of a relatively easy schedule. I'm not trying to take away from what they've done this year, but they only have one quality win, a 23-20 contest against the Bills. Other wins include Cleveland, Jacksonville, Indy, and Seattle. The Steelers should have a rude awakening in store for Cincy.

Dallas Cowboys 28, Buffalo Bills 24

Dallas needs this win to stay in the playoff hunt, and they draw a tough matchup against the 5-3 Bills. That being said, Buffalo's defense has kept them from being among the NFL's elite teams this year. DeMarco Murray should be able to run right through them, and Dez Bryant could break out against this spotty secondary. While Buffalo is capable of scoring with anyone, Dallas should have the better day.

Detroit Lions 23, Chicago Bears 20

Picking the Lions to win makes me second-guess myself, and this decision is probably influenced by the fact that Matthew Stafford is my fantasy QB. Chicago looked exceptional on offense last week; Jay Cutler marched his team down the field numerous times against the Eagles. While Philly's run D has been awful, they still showed indications of a complete offense, because Matt Forte has already proven himself. So why am I picking the Lions (who Matt Forte will run all over next week. He's also on my fantasy team)? Well, no one has seemed to notice that they have one of the worst passing defenses in the league. They'll rush the QB a lot, but Stafford could throw for 300 yards and a pair of scores en route to a big-time win.

San Francisco 49ers 24, New York Giants 20

It's up to Eli Manning in this one. While his big win against New England apparently made him "elite," I'm not buying it. San Fran won't give up anything on the ground, so Manning will need to play probably better than last week if he wants to get his team to 7-2. And Patrick Willis and crew won't let that happen.

New England Patriots 27, New York Jets 24

Patriots, three straight losses? Get outta here. I'd love to see it happen, but I'm not ready to buy the talk that they are no longer elite.

St. Louis Rams 17, Cleveland Browns 13
Philadelphia Eagles 27, Arizona Cardinals 20
Jacksonville Jaguars 13, Indianapolis Colts 10 (If Indy is ever going to win, though, this would be the week.)
Denver Broncos 20, Kansas City Chiefs 17
Miami Dolphins 23, Washington Redskins 17
Houston Texans 31, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14
Tennessee Titans 24, Carolina Panthers 20
Baltimore Ravens 20, Seattle Seahawks 10
Green Bay Packers 24, Minnesota Vikings 12
Oakland Raiders vs. San Diego Chargers had already started when I wrote this post.

Week 7 NFL Projections

Game face.

Last week: 9-4
Season: 55-19

New York Jets 20, San Diego Chargers 17

Minnesota, Kansas City, Miami, and Denver. These are the teams San Diego has beaten en route to a sparkling 4-1 start. And none of them have been convincing.  Oh, by the way, these four teams have a combined 4-17 record. Either they are all shooting for Andrew Luck or should be playing in the Backyard Barbecue League. And San Diego has barely beaten these teams led by your uncle's brother-in law: a field goal win at home against Kansas City, a five point victory against the hapless Broncos. The Jets may have a pretty boy Peewee Leaguer at quarterback, but they are at least a legit NFL team, and the last time the Chargers played one (New England), they lost by two touchdowns.

Detroit Lions 27, Atlanta Falcons 24

Just because they lost last week doesn't mean Detroit is going to start to fall apart a la the 2011 Red Sox. The Falcons have not lived up to expectations and the only aspects of their game they have excelled at thus far is rush defense and losing winnable football games. While Jahvid Best might have a tough time going north-south tomorrow, Matt Stafford should have a field day against this 27th-ranked pass D. With a loss, the Falcons would fall below .500 after such high hopes to start the year.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23, Chicago Bears 17

The Bears' offensive lineman probably wear paper bags over their heads when they walk around the city. Yes, they've been that bad. Jay Cutler looks like he's been into a bar fight after his first series every Sunday, and came out on the wrong end of it. Lovie Smith also isn't helped by the fact that his intimidating defenses of three years ago, or last year even, have reduced themselves to a pile of rubble. Freeman isn't the prodigy we all made him out to be after last year, but if he isn't capable of putting up points on the Bears he too should cover his face in shame.

Normally I write about four games every weekend, but the NFL decided to give us a college schedule for tomorrow and only have a few good games on the slate. Well, if the Colts were more than just Peyton Manning, the Sunday night game against the Saints would be highly anticipated. Instead, the only people watching will be from New Orleans (definitely not Indy).

Denver Broncos 17 (Tebow: 2-12, 6 yards, 2 INT; 15 rush, 137 yards, 2 TD), Miami Dolphins -12
Houston Texans 24, Tennessee Titans 20
Oakland Raiders 10, Kansas City Chiefs 3 (The Chiefs DO have a chance though!)
Washington Redskins 17, Carolina Panthers 14
Pittsburgh Steelers 28, Arizona Cardinals 13
Dallas Cowboys 24, St. Louis Rams 9 (Dez Bryant breakout game, especially because he is going up against clay figurines in Rams jerseys)
Cleveland Browns 13, Seattle Seahawks 7
Green Bay Packers 41, Minnesota Vikings 3
Baltimore Ravens 30, Jacksonville Jaguars 0

Week 6 NFL Projections

Last week: 10-3
Season: 46-15

Detroit Lions 27, San Francisco 49ers 24

The 49ers may have surprised some people more than the Lions have to start this season. Everyone was aware of the talent Matthew Stafford possessed, but Alex Smith? He's looked like a legitimate NFL quarterback so far, albeit a very reliable one. He's only thrown one pick in his team's first five games. Nonetheless, the Lions are playing with a purpose right now; their entire team is on a roll. Look for them to stay undefeated, and Stafford to connect with Megatron for the receiver to reach double-digits in touchdowns this early in the season.

Buffalo Bills 30, New York Giants 27

This is a very good week to pick against the Bills. They haven't been able to cover teams' number three receiver at all this season, as demonstrated by Jason Avant's 160 yards last week. And the Giants have one looking to continue a breakout season in Victor Cruz, who is primed to have a huge day. However, the Giants defense wasn't what it once was, and should be susceptible to the Bills high-powered attack. The Bills have had success both running the ball with Fred Jackson and through the air, and the Giants D is barely average against both this year. Look for the surprise Bills to get to 5-1 after this high scoring affair.

Baltimore Ravens 24, Houston Texans 17

The Ravens had a bye last weekend, a huge advantage for their aging defense. And while Arian Foster is healthy, they are without another offensive cornerstone in Andre Johnson, obviously Matt Schaub's favorite target. The Texans brought in Derrick Mason for a little bit of help, but he and Schaub won't have any chemistry so soon. Behind Johnson, Houston doesn't have anyone worthy of filling in as a number one. This could keep them from a win, no matter how much they have cleaned up their defense.

New Orleans Saints 34, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

The Bucs got smacked around last week against San Francisco, and it certainly doesn't look any better for them facing the high-powered Saints. Certainly they will put up more than the field goal they managed last weekend, but the way their offense has played lately they don't have a shot at putting up points to stay even with the Saints. Josh Freeman hasn't played like the guy he was last year, and if he wants a win today at home he'll need a career game.

Atlanta Falcons 23, Carolina Panthers 20
Washington Redskins 31, Philadelphia Eagles 28
Cincinnati Bengals 26, Indianapolis Colts 20
Green Bay Packers 41, St. Louis Rams 13
Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Jacksonville Jaguars 19
Oakland Raiders 26, Cleveland Browns 13
New England Patriots 27, Dallas Cowboys 20
Chicago Bears 20, Minnesota Vikings 14
New York Jets 26, Miami Dolphins 6

Week 4 NFL Projections

Last Week: 10-6
Season: 23-9

Detroit Lions 24, Dallas Cowboys 20

A win in Jerry Jones' Palace would put Matt Stafford and the mighty Lions at 4-0. Stafford has looked like he's been quarterbacking for years in the Lions' first three wins. And his team's defensive line is more than capable of taking Tony Romo right out of the game. That and the fact that Dallas is missing Miles Austin and is playing with a hurt Dez Bryant equals a Detroit win.

Baltimore Ravens 17, New York Jets 14

A part of me wants to pick the Jets in this game, simply because they are coming off of a loss and there is no way Rex Ryan would let them go back-to-back. But the Jets aren't quite the same team they had a year ago. Their run defense is tanking, allowing 136.7 yards per game, 31st in the league. And their own rushing hasn't fared much better: just 82.5 yards per game, good for 25th in the league. This ballgame looks to be played mostly on the ground, which favors Ray Rice and the Ravens.

New England Patriots 27, Oakland Raiders 20

I was on the verge of picking the Bills to upset New England last week but couldn't get myself to do it. This week, there is a similar situation. Again, I'll go with the Pats, and maybe regret it later. But Tom Brady tanking two weeks in a row? Gimme a break. Last week's four INTs were a fluke, and when he is back to his normal self tomorrow, he'll grind this one out for a W.

New York Giants 24, Arizona Cardinals 21

Arizona's defense has been nonexistent in the first few weeks of the season. They can still hang around with many teams though, losing their last two games by a combined four points. Zona also possesses a solid passing attack: Kevin Kolb and Larry Fitzgerald, who could catch 70 passes with a cardboard bag throwing to him, have developed chemistry. Despite this, Kolb is turnover prone, and expect the Giants to force a few, while Eli Manning dissects this porous Arizona defense.

Carolina Panthers 20, Chicago Bears 17
Buffalo Bills 30, Cincinnati Bengals 21
Tennessee Titans 21, Cleveland Browns 17
Minnesota Vikings 23, Kansas City Chiefs 10
Philadelphia Eagles 31, San Francisco 49ers 24
Washington Redskins 20, St. Louis Rams 10
New Orleans Saints 38, Jacksonville Jaguars 13
Houston Texans 21, Pittsburgh Steelers 20
Atlanta Falcons 26, Seattle Seahawks 17
Green Bay Packers 31, Denver Broncos 7
San Diego Chargers 34, Miami Dolphins 13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24, Indianapolis Colts 9