Sixers 2012 Roster Projections

The Philadelphia 76ers head into the 2012-2013 with a 14-man roster consisting of only five players from a season ago. But among Philadelphians, there is a renewed confidence in this team even after just finishing a game away from the Eastern Conference Finals. Had it not been for the Andre Iguodala - Andrew Bynum deal (the Dwight Howard trade), much of that optimism would not be present.

With an almost entirely new roster, head coach Doug Collins will have his hands full trying to mix and match the correct lineups, leading this team to play to its caliber as a championship contender. Here is an overview of each player, how much playing time they should get, and how much time Collins will actually give them.

Lavoy Allen: Should play 25 MPG. Will play 15-20 MPG

Allen earned his stripes in the postseason with his stellar defensive showing against Kevin Garnett. KG was running all over Spencer Hawes every minute the two were matched up, but Allen was able to contain him. Unfortunately for Allen, it looks as if Doug Collins thinks more of Hawes as a player right now, as Hawes has been named the starter at PF for some goofy reason. Allen might even get stuck behind Kwame Brown on the depth chart, although I am confident Lavoy will impress during training camp, and maybe take Hawes' starting job some point during the season. In addition to his defense and consistent rebounding, the sophomore also possesses an above-average mid range jumper, and double-double potential.


Kwame Brown: Should play 5-10 MPG. Will play 15 MPG

Brown was brought in for defensive prowess. But he isn't any better on that side of the ball than Lavoy Allen is, and his offensive game is almost nonexistent. It was a scary thought to Sixers fans when Doug Collins had him at starting center before the deal was made for Andrew Bynum. Although he probably shouldn't be, Brown will probably serve as Andrew Bynum's backup, leaving less minutes for Allen and rookie Arnett Moultrie.


Andrew Bynum: Should play 30-40 MPG. Will play 30-40 MPG

The concerns for Bynum are not his basketball skills, but rather his knees, his dedication, his effort, his maturity, his decision-making, etc. He appears to be thrilled to be in Philly, and if all goes as planned, he'll sign a max deal at the end of this season. The Orthokine knee procedure he has decided to undergo in Germany should be a positive sign, as he is being proactive about his health.


Spencer Hawes: Should play 5-20 MPG. Will play 25-30 MPG

Spencer Hawes is a backup NBA big. He can get a mid-range jumper going, but is downright terrible at defense. He cannot guard any quality big man. He plays somewhat soft and isn't imposing to anyone driving straight at him. He can play in this league, but the team would be far better off if Lavoy Allen, or maybe even Arnett Moultrie were to start in his place.


Jrue Holiday: Should play 30-35 MPG. Will play 30-40 MPG

It is said the future of this team is in Jrue Holiday and Evan Turner's hands. Based on what I saw last season from Holiday, I'd be concerned. I'm not as excited about him as other Sixers fans. He plays defense lackadaisically, takes questionable shots and dribbles around pointlessly too often. As the team's starting point guard last season, he averaged a measly 4.5 assists. Last year should have been his breakout this; this year better be.


Royal Ivey: Should play 0-5 MPG. Will play 0-5 MPG

Ivey, in his second stint with the Sixers, is a guy who can provide veteran presence and can help mentor the young guys on how to be NBA players. He will rack up the DNP-CDs, and will compete with rookie Maalik Wayns for garbage time minutes at point guard.


Arnett Moultrie: Should play 15-25 MPG. Will play 0-15 MPG

If Doug Collins has a flaw as a head coach, it might be his development of young players. He was criticized for his treatment of Evan Turner last season, even if it might have been for the better. Collins' decision to play Spencer Hawes over Lavoy Allen shouldn't be encouraging for the rookie overflowing with potential, as it shows his doesn't favor his young bigs. Moultrie likely won't get enough of an opportunity to prove himself this year, barring an injury to someone.


Jason Richardson: Should play 15-20 MPG. Will play 15-25 MPG

It remains to be seen whether J-Rich will be a starter, as opposed to Thaddeus Young or Dorell Wright. The bottom line is the Sixers are a very deep team, and won't find enough playing time for everyone. Richardson can still play, and will contribute with whatever opportunity he gets.


Evan Turner: Should play 30-35 MPG. Will play 30-35 MPG

It is now Evan Turner's time. If his jump shot is the same as it's been in the past, there is cause for worry. But he is arguably the best rebounding guard in the league, and last year he showed flashes of being able to score twenty a night and put up double-doubles (yes, he's that good on the glass) with regularity. His passion during the game has the power to endear him to Philly fans if he puts up the numbers.


Maalik Wayns: Should play 0-10 MPG. Will play 0-10 MPG

He is known fondly in Philly for his starring role with Villanova. His status with the team isn't set in stone yet, but word is that he will be on the roster, meaning he'll probably get some garbage time minutes. A natural scorer, somewhat suspect defensive player and average passer, Wayns has the far-off chance to develop into Philly's next Lou Williams if Nick Young leaves after this year.


Dorell Wright: Should play 25 MPG. Will play 10-20 MPG

This guy can play. He has a killer touch from long range, can play D and will be a great late-game player due to his free-throw shooting (80% career). With the logjam of players at his position, he won't get the minutes he should, but will still be a contributor for this team.


Nick Young: Should play 10-25 MPG. Will play 15-30 MPG

I hate this guy's game. He can score, albeit very inefficiently. He is a ballhog. He doesn't play defense, and probably isn't intelligent enough to know what the word means. That being said, the Sixers struggled putting the ball in the hoop last season, and Young can go on offensive outburts a la Lou Williams. For cheap, he's not an awful pickup.


Thaddeus Young: Should play 20-35 MPG. Will play 25-30 MPG

Is he a three or a four? Probably neither; just a basketball player. He's a little small to guard power forwards, but looks a bit awkward at the three. Doesn't really matter. He causes ruckus whenever he is in the game, and will find a way to get his without ever having a play called for him. His endless energy is something Andrew Bynum should take note of.

Trying to Make Sense of the Sixers' Offseason Moves

Nick Young's a ball hog and proud of it.

Prior to the start of last season, the Philadelphia 76ers had a definite direction. With Elton Brand and Andre Iguodala present on the roster, the team would try to develop its young players, and hopefully advance out of the first round in the playoffs. The end result of the 2011-2012 season was regarded as satisfactory: a Game 7 loss in the Eastern Conference semis, an improvement to a five-game first-round exit the year before.

The 2012 offseason was, or is, supposed to be the next step in the team becoming a contender. Except, with the Atlantic division strengthening around them, the Sixers really haven't improved their roster much at all.

The Brooklyn Nets have completely revamped their team and possibly become contenders in the blink of an eye; that is for another column. The Raptors added Kyle Lowry to pair alongside DeMar DeRozan and Andrea Bargnani. The Celtics grabbed some big names, Jared Sullinger and Fab Melo, in the draft, but both are NBA question marks. 

So what have the Sixers done?

The draft is where the head-scratching began. With the 15th pick, they selected Moe Harkless out of St. John's, who is a player with potential, but one who simply does not fit on this current roster. The best-case scenario is that he becomes a right-handed version of Thaddeus Young, a player the Sixers have under contract for the next four years. Philly was already overloaded at the small forward position; in addition to Young, Evan Turner and Andre Iguodala, who is still on the roster, also play the position.

What would have made more sense would have been to take a big man with the pick; that is the glaring weakness. The Harkless signing seems to be in hope of trading Iguodala for Pau Gasol or another established big. But with the current roster, Harkless' addition will create a minutes disparity and/or guys playing out of position too often.

The Sixers did eventually take a big man in Arnett Moultrie, with the 27th pick. The problem here, though, is they gave away next year's first rounder to the Miami Heat in order to draft him. Why not just take him at fifteen, or trade down if they knew he'd still be there?

What has transpired after the draft has not been very encouraging either. Thus far the front office has:

Re-signed Lavoy Allen for 2 yrs, $6 million
Re-signed Spencer Hawes for 2 yrs, $13 million
Amnestied Elton Brand, owing him $18 million
Chose not to re-sign Lou Williams, Jodie Meeks, Tony Battie, Sam Young, and Xavier Silas
Signed Nick Young for 1 yr, $6 million

There is one positive. Lavoy Allen's contract is very reasonable; last year he showed his excellent defensive post presence, and he has potential to develop his offensive game. He's a valuable bench player at this stage, but he will have an opportunity to prove himself this season and may see starter's minutes.

And then Spencer Hawes is back. There probably weren't many alternatives, but from a diehard fan's perspective, he is just difficult to watch. Kevin Garnett ran all over him in the playoffs; as a result he lost minutes to Allen. He plays rather soft and is nonathletic. Capable of scoring spurts at times, he earned $13 million, I guess, from two twenty-point performances in the postseason. Hawes is a capable backup, but going into 2012-13 with him in position to start makes fans uncomfortable.

More puzzling than the Harkless and Hawes signings was the decision to amnesty Elton Brand. If you are not familiar, the amnesty clause, new in last year's collective bargaining agreement, allows teams to waive one player's contract from their salary cap figure while still paying the player in actuality. Brand was a hardworking player who gave 110% in every game he played with the Sixers, but his production had not merited his contract. The fact he was amnestied is not especially controversial, but ESPN's John Hollinger explains the problem with the move, as the timing was off:

But let's get back to Philly, who both amnestied Brand and announced they'd be parting ways with Lou Williams on Friday, and then said they reached a one-year deal with Nick Young.

What, exactly, are they going for here? Even after the amnesty, Philly has just $7 million in cap room, which is perhaps enough to put in a bid for the likes of Ersan Ilyasova or Kris Humphries, but if you're going to do that you might as well ride out another year with Brand, right?

Even more puzzling is the timing. If Philly had determined to amnesty Brand a week ago and not bothered with Young or the recent two-year, $13-million deal with Spencer Hawes, the Sixers were looking at max cap space and the chance to lure a top free agent. Not a great chance, perhaps, but a chance.

Now? They're looking at, best-case scenario, signing somebody almost as good as Brand. One wonders if another move is waiting around the corner -- an Andre Iguodala trade, perhaps, or some other move that will allow us to make sense of all this.

There really is no direction to what the front office is doing right now. Meeks, Battie, Sam Young, and Silas can go. Meeks had his moments, Battie is a great veteran presence to the younger guys and will probably be a coach someday, and Young worked harder than anyone, but no one in Philly is going to outcry over these moves. But why Nick Young? He is a ballhog. Plain and simple. In a team that is trying to build around Jrue Holiday and Evan Turner, two guys that already don't like to pass much, adding Nick Young won't make the big guys in the game happy.

To try to justify the move: the Sixers needed a pure scorer, and Young gives them that at a much lower price than Lou Williams would have been. The problem with Young is, well, everything except his scoring. And he doesn't score efficiently either: he shot just 40% last season. But he may be able to help the team avoid those six-minute scoring droughts that plagued them in the postseason.

I will do a follow-up post to this later in the offseason when more moves have been made.

Just Like Old Times

Let me start off by saying I couldn't be happier for Andre Iguodala. For those of you outside of the Philadelphia area, Andre has been one of the most underappreciated athletes I have ever seen. I've written a post in the past explaining the situation. For Dre to sink two clutch free throws after struggling all season from the line to cap off a productive series, one in which he led his team past the Bulls (and completely neutralized down Luol Deng), just makes me so proud of him as one of his biggest fans.

Enough with the gushing for Andre, though. The Sixers have moved on to Boston, and split a pair at the Boston Garden. The series is now headed to Philly, and the Celtics are considerably weaker on the road.

I am a diehard Sixers fan, but that does not factor into my picking them to win in six (I am willing to face the music if they run into a full strength Miami). Here's why:

Iguodala has been able to take Paul Pierce completely out of his rhythm, and Boston needs him if they want to win the series. Having the Paul Pierce of five years ago might have made the difference in the series, because right now, he simply can't get by the more athletic Iguodala.

Spencer Hawes is not enough of an athlete to handle a rejuvenated Kevin Garnett down low. That's what makes Lavoy Allen's emergence so crucial. He's given KG all he can handle down the paint, and is averaging 11 points and 7 boards through the first two games. In last night's one point Philadelphia win, he posted a +21 +/- rating in 30 minutes (meaning when he was in the game, the Sixers outscored the Celtics by 21 points). A rookie who was ranked the worst player in the NBA by ESPN before the season, Allen is showing signs he can have a productive career. His coach believes it too, comparing him to Indiana's David West...

This has been repeated time and time again, but Philly's ability to run against Boston's age has really worked to their advantage. A lousy half court-team, the 76ers must hit the jets off of steals and defensive boards, because Boston's defense can stifle them in the slower-paced game.

Evan Turner is doing more than making the occasional spectacular play. During these playoffs, he's shown he can be a 16-8-5 type guy for a long time. Much improvement from the bust status he had begun to acquire during his rookie season.

Even if my Sixers fail to win this series, though, it's still reassuring to see these two feisty old rivals get back at it like they've done throughout their storied histories. Knowing my team is on the upswing will suffice for now, but this 76er team certainly has aspirations of ousting their northern foe, and whoever comes next.

Predictions: Some Bold, Some Obvious

1. Peyton Manning will sign with the Miami Dolphins, and connect with Brandon Marshall to give the wideout 1,600 receiving yards.

Marshall recorded over 1,200 yards with Chad Henne and I forget the other guy throwing to him. With a top five (arguably) QB in league history throwing balls his way, expect a combination that will turn out far better than the much-hyped Tom Brady/Chad Ochocinco combo that wasn't.

2. Evan Turner emerges as an NBA star.

It's not just because tonight is his coming-out party (26 points, 9 boards so far in his 2nd start). As the Sixers have faltered lately until this game against the Celtics (where they lead 102-65 as of this minute), Doug Collins shook things up and inserted Turner into the starting lineup in place of Jodie Meeks. Big deal, right? Yes, actually. Turner had been playing largely off-ball for most of his minutes so far this season, but in tonight's game, Collins finally gave him permission to play like he did in college. Seems like eons ago when Evan Turner was the college player of the year. Mark my word, he will again become a household name.

3. Josh Johnson wins the NL Cy Young.

* If Clayton Kershaw doesn't repeat.

I picked Johnson to do the same last year, but he got hurt. Coming off a season in which he recorded just nine starts (and a sparkly 1.64 ERA), Johnson is under the radar to pretty much all baseball fans. When people think of the new-look Marlins, they think of Ozzie, Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez. Heath Bell and Giancarlo Stanton are much talked about as well. It's as if Josh Johnson no longer exists. He will when he brings in the hardware.

4. Andrew Luck isn't as good as everyone says he will be.

The last "once-in-a-generation" QB prospect? JaMarcus Russell. BY NO MEANS am I saying Andrew Luck will be JaMarcus Russell. I think he will be a good NFL quarterback. But he will certainly not be Peyton Manning: leading what is really a three-win team to thirteen a season. The start of the rookie's 23-million dollar paycheck will be rough.

5. Either Neftali Feliz or Daniel Bard (probably Bard) will flame out in the starting rotation.

This usually doesn't work. Neither of these guys are lazy nutcases like Joba Chamberlain. But bringing guys out of late-inning work in the pen to the rotation, in general, simply does not work. I understand that these guys were starters in their past, but their mindset is currently to shut the door late in games, not start them. And in the routine-oriented mind of an MLB pitcher, that is significant.

Sixers' Return to Winning Ways

For the most part of this 2010-2011 basketball season, the Philadelphia 76ers have played in front of home crowds that barely fill a third of the Wells Fargo Center. Those few fans in attendance at first had little to cheer about, as the Sixers started what looked to be a terribly long season at with a 3-13 mark. But the wins this year, after the early misery, have started coming. And steadily, the bandwagon jumpers have decided to go to some games, the WFC is starting to fill, and the atmosphere that should be at any basketball game is beginning to return.

This current 76ers season has certainly had its fair share of heartbreak, completely disregarding the horrific 3-13 launch. There's been at least six games the Sixers have had under their belt, but let get away. Most recently was the game against the Memphis Grizzlies, when Philly managed to blow a 21-point 4th quarter lead.

The Sixers, since the best of the Iverson days, have taken a backseat to the Eagles, Phillies, and Flyers in the City of Brotherly Love. All three of those teams are now consistantly in championship contention; the 76ers far from it. Thus, Philly fans have paid them next to no attention. Even with this current hot streak, many fans still disregard them, and one could argue rightfully so. But some have noticed, while the Sixers still aren't a title contender, that they are playing some quality basketball.

In tonight's 100-98 thrilling win over the Knicks, there was some life in the Wells Fargo Center. The Sixers inched within two games of the 6th spot in the East, possessed by New York. Elton Brand looked like the player he was with the Clippers, putting up 33 points (his highest total as a Sixer) as well as 16 boards. Andre Iguodala, the team's centerpiece, had 18 points to go along with 16 assists. Energy came from the bench. Every player contributed, and played with more effort than normally seen in an NBA game. Coach Doug Collins is in the midst of turning around another team, in this case what was a mess left by Eddie Jordan. The Sixers have won six of their last seven, the only loss being the aforementioned Grizzlies game.

Rather than in the midseason, the team's turnaround was supposed to be as a result of the 2010 NBA Draft. When the Sixers drafted Evan Turner, he was considered the savior for Philadelphia basketball, an up-and-coming star who would take the team from Iguodala's grasp. Coming off college basketball's National Player of the Year Award the season before at Ohio State, Turner was expected to take the helm and do what Allen Iverson did: put the team on his back. In the weeks before the season, the city anticipated Turner's debut, talk of him filling the city. He was the hero, receiving a standing O at a Phillies game. Though not yet a bust, this wasn't, or isn't yet, the reality. Turner is not even starting, but coming off the bench behind former Kentucky star, yet far less acclaimed Jodie Meeks. He's shown flashes of stardom, but as of right now his role is a contributor off the bench, whatever is best needed to help the team.

That very same team first aspect is a significant reason for these winning ways, every man on the team putting the common goal of any team in any league before his own personal interests. For example, Elton Brand knows he is no longer consitantly the player he once was. He's accepted the fact that he is no longer an NBA superstar, and has accepted coming off of the bench for a few games in the past. But he rarely sits now, leading the team in scoring and rebounding, and, while no longer at an all-star level he used to be, has become a backbone for this team. Marresse Speights, a guy who can certainly play in this league, scarely saw court time earlier in the year. He didn't sulk at all, but rather worked harder in practice and earned his PT, and now contributes when he's called upon.

Are the Sixers going to win an NBA Championship in 2011? No. Not a chance. But they certainly will at least put up a fight against either the Bulls or Heat, or whoever they play in the first round of the playoffs, even if they lose the series. In watching this team one can see they have the fight that other teams lack, which has led to wins. Which, currently, aren't so hard to come by any longer.