2012 MLB Predictions at the Break

American League MVP: Josh Hamilton. His incredible power numbers will be able to fend off rookie phenom Mike Trout, who will probably have a few of these awards by the time his career is done.

National League MVP: Andrew McCutchen. Joey Votto has gotten on base more, but Cutch has done everything else more effectively thus far. Even if the power numbers stack up similarly at the end, McCutchen's 25-30 steals and stellar centerfield play will give him the edge over the first baseman. The deciding factor might end up being which team makes the playoffs.

American League Cy Young: Jered Weaver. The popular pick is Justin Verlander, and while he leads Weaver in most pitching statistical categories, Weaver's ERA is 62 points lower (1.96). Pitchers starting off this hot have a tendency to stumble down the stretch (Weaver's ERA on August 5 of last season was 1.78. He finished at 2.41), but I think he'll be able to learn from last year. Another dark horse candidate is 23-year-old Chris Sale, who has posted a 2.19 ERA to go along with a 0.95 WHIP and 98 Ks in 102.2 innings.

National League Cy Young: R.A. Dickey. Even if Johnny Cueto and James McDonald (I have absolutely no clue how they weren't all-stars by the way) finish with slightly better statistics, Dickey will take the award if he keeps pitching as he is. The fact that he is a 37-year-old knuckleballer with a heartwarming story will appeal to voters. I have a feeling that Cueto and McDonald, at 26 and 27 years old respectively, will be in the Cy conversation for years to come.

American League Rookie of the Year: Mike Trout. Yu Darvish or anyone else won't come close.

National League Rookie of the Year: Bryce Harper. I don't know if he'll deserve it, but he'll win nonetheless. There were about 25 guys that should have made the all-star game before he did, but his hype wins out. He's not outhitting the Reds' Todd Frazier, a guy whom many of you probably don't know who he is. Wade Miley, the owner of a 9-5 record and 3.04 ERA, could make things interesting of he keeps things up.

AL East winner: New York Yankees. No one's catching them.

AL Central winner: Chicago White Sox. Youk is coming alive, they've found a diamond in the rough in Jose Quintana, Adam Dunn and Alex Rios are rejuvenated, and Paul Konerko is still hitting the lights out. Robin Ventura's crew should be able to pull off the improbable and hold off Verlander, Prince and the Tigers for the division crown.

AL West winner: Texas Rangers. This division is all but assured of having two playoff teams, as the Angels will probably take a wild card if they can't bounce the Rangers from first place. Texas looks October-ready in July.

AL Wild Cards: Los Angeles Angels and Detroit Tigers. I'm pretty much positive the Angels are going to grab one, but the second spot is up in the air. It's pretty much in between the second-place Central team (White Sox or Tigers) and the Tampa Bay Rays. Detroit looks like they are coming together while the Rays are barely getting by. I think this is the year when the Rays' lack of cash will bite them as they await Evan Longoria's return.

NL East winner: Washington Nationals. I know they had a great core coming in, but still, who would have thought that the Washington Nationals would have the best record in the NL at the break? That's like saying "The Arizona Cardinals are going to the Super Bowl!" from a few years back. Maybe the Nats would compete for a wild card, sure, but not this.

NL Central winner: St. Louis Cardinals. They have the most talent in the division, and it's all but certain the Pirates will fade at least a little bit. As far as the Reds go, if they want to win the division, they are going to need Drew Stubbs (.215/.286/.367) to come alive. It's certainly possible this division is the first in baseball history to have three playoff teams.

NL West winner: San Francisco Giants. The Dodgers are free fallin'. Even Matt Kemp's return won't be able to save them at this point. Despite Tim Lincecum's terribleness, San Fran will take advantage and win the division.

NL Wild Cards: Pittsburgh Pirates and Atlanta Braves. This will be baseball's most intense race. Atlanta is a shoo-in, and Pittsburgh is, well, a gut pick. I want it to happen. The Mets' lack of talent will get to them and they will fade, but the Reds, Cardinals, and Bucs will duke it out until the finish.

Breaking Down the NL All-Star Voting Totals

National League:

1B: Joey Votto leads by a landslide. The fact that he is batting .353/.478/.643 makes him the easy choice, especially because the NL has a lack of productiveness out of the first base position this season.

2B: This one is a question mark. Dan Uggla leads Brandon Phillips by over 700,000 votes. The only edge Uggla has over Phillips is one more home run (eleven to ten). Uggla has committed four times as many errors as Phillips (eight to two). While Brandon Phillips is hitting a respectable .289, Uggla is sitting at .232, which would have to be one of the lowest batting averages for an all-star the game has ever seen.

3B: David Wright leads Pablo Sandoval by a few hundred thousand votes. Batting .357 makes that well deserved on its own.

SS: Rafael Furcal and Troy Tulowitzki are in a close race, with Furcal leading. With Tulo not going to be be off the DL for the Midsummer Classic, the nod will likely go to Furcal. I have no problem with Furcal instead of Starlin Castro, as Castro's defense has been inconsistent, and his overall offensive stats are not even with Furcal's.

C: Backstop is currently the NL voting's biggest mistake so far. 

Player A: .300/.366/.483/.850
Player B: .364/.428/.591/1.019
Player C: .316/.367/.518/.885

Player A is leading Player C by almost 200,000 votes and Player B by almost 700,000. If you follow baseball intently you probably know who these three are. While Carlos Ruiz (B) is leading all of Major League Baseball in hitting, Buster Posey (A) is in line to start the All-Star Game. Yadier Molina (C) is also having a better year than Posey. Both Ruiz and Molina are far better defensively than the young phenom, but in this voting none of that seems to matter.

OF: Matt Kemp leads all outfielders, and while he is currently on the DL, he aspires to return to play in the ASG. Carlos Beltran is in a deserving second, replacing Albert Pujols with 20 HR and 59 RBI to go along with a .312 average. Melky Cabrera and his .351 average have surpassed Ryan Braun for third. If not for the steroid allegation, Braun's popularity probably would have had him leading this vote. Following these four are Andre Ethier, Matt Holliday, Hunter Pence, Michael Bourn, Angel Pagan, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Gonzalez, and Jason Heyward. A few of these guys will be snubbed, as many are having similarly terrific seasons. It appears the Giants are stuffing the ballots somewhat, as Pagan has no business being on this list. Heyward is a stretch as well. To put them in order, I'd go:

Beltran, McCutchen, Bourn, Cabrera, Kemp, Gonzalez, Braun. The rest shouldn't make the roster.

AL will be done tomorrow.

Top 25 Baseball Players (11-15)

11) Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds

I don't know if you remember, but Joey Votto won an MVP award in 2010. You may not, however, because he's as under the radar as a superstar can be. He's been a beast since his arrival in the bigs in 2007, posting a shiny .313 career batting average, and is the centerpiece of a Reds organization that needs to get him more help.


12) Roy Halladay, P, Philadelphia Phillies

Still among the top pitchers in the game, Halladay is beginning to enter the stage of his career where he relies on finesse a bit more than in the past. He still can crank up a 93-MPH cutter when he needs to, but he did surrender 208 hits last year. Nonetheless he strands guys on the bases; his ERA of 2.35 was only bested by Clayton Kershaw. ERA-wise, the next best pitcher to surrender 200 hits was CC Sabathia, whose ERA was 65 points higher.


13) Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies

This five-tooler delivers a rare power surge from the shortstop position. He's cashed in with Colorado for the next decade, and hasn't yet reached his full potential. He committed only six errors a season ago, an impressive feat for a middle infielder. It's still extremely early, but if he keeps it up, a spot in Cooperstown could be waiting.


14) Cliff Lee, P, Philadelphia Phillies

This guy is capable of  jaw-dropping stretches of dominance, like in June of this past year, when he threw three straight shutouts and allowed just one earned run in his five starts. His spiked curve is simply filthy. Hitters leave the plate thinking they've seen a ghost.


15) Tim Lincecum, P, San Francisco Giants

Timmy explains his unorthodox, yet mechanically sound delivery by saying his dad told him to think he was reaching low for a dollar bill in front of the mound. Well, he's earned himself a lot more than a dollar: he just settled with the Giants for two years, 40.5 million in cash, avoiding arbitration. Now the question is whether the front office can pick up an offense that will help he and fellow star Matt Cain get some Ws.

Will be continued tomorrow.