2011-2012 NBA Preview (Part 3)

Continued from Part 2, which was posted December 20.

This year's Western Conference will play out almost nothing like last season's. The fairly large gap in talent between the elite teams and the good ones a season ago will be thrown out the window this coming year. Roughly twelve teams have their hopes set on the postseason. Don't be surprised if the one and six seeds finish five games apart, and enjoy viewing some of the most competitive competition the NBA has fielded in quite some time.


1) Oklahoma City Thunder

Oklahoma City may have a Big Three of its own this season, and unlike the Celtics and Heat who bought theirs through free agency, OKC's would be entirely home grown. Wondering who the third guy is after Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant? James Harden, a 22-year-old who has only started five games in his NBA career. Harden has still gotten plenty of playing time behind defensive specialist Thabo Sefolosha, and is considered by many to be a candidate for the NBA's Sixth Man of the Year Award. That being said, he may end up playing too well for head coach Scott Brooks to resist starting. As for the Thunder's championship aspirations? They say only the veteran teams come out on top (and if you take a look at the last decade of NBA championship teams, this is essentially true), but with the Thunder's talent? This group certainly has a chance.


2) Portland Trail Blazers

This seems way too high. The Portland Trail Blazers are the second best team in the West? They lack a true superstar, but have all the components you would look for in a winning basketball team. Raymond Felton has turned himself into one of the better floor generals in the league, Gerald Wallace's defense and all-around play help anchor the team.... every player on this ballclub brings together what appears to be one of the league's most all-around teams heading into this season. Having seven (eight if you consider Oden's talent) NBA-calibur starters is a problem every team would yearn to have, and Portland possesses it. And they may not have to search far and wide for a superstar anyway, as LaMarcus Alridge is right on the cusp of an MVP-type season. This team has been entirely overlooked going in, but it's not so far-fetched to say they could be the last team standing.


3)  Los Angeles Clippers

When purchasing single-game Sixers tickets the other night, I chose the Clippers game, something I never would have considered last year even. David Stern's gift to this franchise (Chris Paul) isn't the only reason the longtime Staples Center's secondary attraction is turning heads. Completely disregarding Paul and Blake Griffin, this group is loaded with talent (Caron Butler, DeAndre Jordan, Mo Williams...). The key to this team's success is whether Chris Paul and Chauncey Billups can learn to play with each other; Paul is the true point guard, while Billups has played the position for the bulk of his career. Mr. Big Shot will probably gladly play the two if it means contending for a title.

As of right now, though, if the Clippers could create a banner for two preseason wins, they'd gladly hang it in the rafters.


4) Dallas Mavericks

They're the defending champions but it seems as if not a single person outside of Dallas gives them any fighting chance to repeat. They probably won't, but they weren't supposed to win it all last year, were they? Their offseason essentially involved swapping Tyson Chandler and Caron Butler for Lamar Odom and an aging Vince Carter. How this turns out is obviously yet to be seen. What it does mean is that this team still hasn't gotten any younger, and that Brendan Haywood is now the starting center. Talent remains plentiful on this roster though, and Dallas comes out of the gates a dark horse yet again.


5) Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizz are here to show that knocking off the Spurs last year wasn't a fluke, and look to keep the show going. They will. The fifth seed might even be a understatement for a roster that is simply loaded. They have two twenty-a-night guys in Rudy Gay and Zach Randolph who give far more than just the scoring, and another guy, O.J. Mayo, who's talented enough to do the same. Marc Gasol is learning to hold down the defensive fort down low. The bench is filled with young guns that could make up a solid starting unit in a few years. There is a lot to like about the 2012 Memphis Grizzlies.


6) Los Angeles Lakers

Don't really hate to say this at all, but the end of the current Lakers dynasty is unfurling before our eyes. Aging bodies, the playoff drubbing at the hands of the Mavs, and the Zen Master's departure got the demise going. David Stern played a massive part as well as you know. The formerly well-rounded Lakers are now just a three-man show (Kobe, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum), and if one of those guys go down, this could get ugly, fast.


7) Denver Nuggets

The Denver Nuggets were the definition of team basketball following the Carmelo Anthony swap that so far has ended up favoring Mile High. In this previous blog post I explain their transformation that resulted in fewer points allowed and soaring assist totals. They've lost a few pieces, but Ty Lawson and Danilo Gallinari's development should keep this team playing well above .500 basketball.


8) San Antonio Spurs

The eighth seed in this year's West doesn't constitute a lousy season. Considering the Spurs won this conference's regular season crown a year ago would not be comforting, however. Nonetheless they could finish here and still go 40-26. Fending off talented Houston and New Orleans squads should be quite a challenge. That's if San Anton finishes down here, that is. They could be anywhere from the second seed to the eleventh, exhibiting how deep this year's West is. They're simply far too old at this point, though, and Tim Duncan just isn't a force anymore.

In this year's West it seems as if there aren't enough wins to go around. Ten teams are talented enough to finish with 40 wins, but not many will be elite. One thing is for sure, though. The Lakers-Spurs reign is a thing of the past.

Part 4 will be written soon, and will be the last part of this NBA preview.

Playoffs Upon Us...Finally (Day 1 Preview)

The seemingly endless NBA season has finally come to a close. Now it's playoff time, which takes more than half as long as an entire NFL regular season. There's three days between games of each seven-game series, and about a week between rounds. Upsets are at a minimum. However, in the NBA Playoffs defense is actually played, and the excitement that lacks for much of the regular season finally appears.

Today's games are Indiana at Chicago (Game 1 is currently being played as this is written), Philly at Miami, Atlanta at Orlando, and Portland at Dallas.

The Pacers have a four-point edge at the half, up 55-51. But the Bulls and the expected MVP Derrick Rose are the heavy favorite, having earned the one seed in the east following a 62-20 record. Danny Granger claimed that if his team can stop Rose, they can stop the Bulls. But the supporting cast of Chicago is not shabby, featuring Luol Deng, Joakim Noah, and Carlos Boozer. Through a half though, led by Darren Collison, the Pacers have slightly outplayed the Bulls, though many expect a Bulls recovery. Prediction: Bulls in seven six.

Before any basketball was played, LeBron James declared the new-look Heat would win "seven or eight" championships. Their quest for number one begins against my Philadelphia 76ers later this afternoon, where Miami is expected to breeze through a young Philly team. Doug Collins' group will try to prove they should not be taken lightly, as the Heat are probably already thinking past them. Andre Iguodala still is not fully recovered from a knee injury, and while he is regarded as one of the NBA's best defensive players, he will have a tougher time limiting Dwyane Wade or LeBron like he's done in the past. Iguodala can only guard one of them though, so Evan Turner will have to step up on D if the Sixers want any shot at the series. Expect the Heat to run screens with wily vet Mike Bibby to get Iguodala off one of the stars. Prediction (sadly): Heat in six.

Orlando seemingly traded away half of their team earlier in the year, but of course Dwight Howard remains, and is hungry for a championship. Not expected by many to go all the way, however, the Magic start off against the Atlanta Hawks. Jameer Nelson's postgame comments to Derrick Rose drew some scrutiny from the Hawks players, when he told Rose he will see him in round two. The well-rounded Hawks, led by Joe Johnson, want to prove Nelson wrong, and certainly not repeat last postseason, when the Magic swept them. Prediction: Magic in six.

Dirk Nowitzki has already won an MVP and been to the NBA Finals. He just has not won it all. Calling this "another disappointing season" if his Mavs group does not go all the way, Dirk's road starts against the potent Portland Trail Blazers. The Blazers have a great mix of talent including the newly-acquired Gerald Wallace, Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Wesley Matthews, Marcus Camby, and Andre Miller. Roy was once regarded as an NBA star, but has been hindered by injuries and only averaged a dozen points a game. He's now behind Gerald Wallace on the depth-chart, as Wallace's acquisition has skyrocketed Portland to new heights. Expect LaMarcus Aldridge to be almost unguardable for the Mavs. Portland creates far too many matchup problems in the series for the aging Mavs. Prediction: Blazers in seven.