Down to the Wire

Story of Red Sox' September: Here, Jacoby Ellsbury can't make catch, resulting in Robert Andino inside-the-park HR

The Red Sox and Braves have folded when it matters most. But they're not out. Once far and away the two wild card leaders, these two ballclubs have fallen apart down the stretch and have put themselves in must-win situations against teams that aren't playing for anything. With only two games left for all four teams, the Red Sox, Braves, Rays and Cardinals will duke it out for the right to play on into October.

On the first day of September, the Boston Red Sox led the Tampa Bay Rays by nine games, and were actually a half game up on the Yankees for the AL East lead. It was almost a given Boston was in and would be a major threat to take the title to Beantown. While it is still a possibility, a 6-18 month is not a way to get that going. On the other hand, the Rays have played steadily, going 15-9 in September en route to tying the Sox. Now, Boston plays their final two games against the basement dwelling Orioles, who have had a knack for beating contending teams recently. The Rays finish against the AL's top seed, the Yankees, who don't have anything to play for and are starting relief pitchers. If the Sox and Rays finish with the same record, get ready for another Game 163.

The Cardinals have played themselves back into contention but will need some help from the 100-win Phillies to play on. Still a game back on the Braves with two left, the Cards need to take care of the Astros and hope the Phils beat the Braves at least once to stay alive. Going 8-16 this September, like the Red Sox the Braves are also on the verge of a historic collapse.

About five weeks ago I wrote a blog post stating if baseball wanted September races, second place team would have to have extraordinary Septembers. That didn't necessarily happen; while the Rays and Cards have certainly played well, much of the end-of-season urgency can be largely attributed to the slides by the Sox and Braves.

Week 3 NFL Projections

Last week: 13-3

Philadelphia Eagles 34, New York Giants 24

The Eagles have won the last six meetings between these two, and their defense should be able to rebound well enough from last week's disaster in Atlanta. And with Mario Manningham likely out and Steve Smith on the other sideline now, Hakeem Nicks will receive all the attention.

New England Patriots 31, Buffalo Bills 27

Buffalo is the talk of the NFL right now, jumping out to a surprising 2-0 start. Expect them to give the mighty Pats a dogfight, but ultimately fall just short. There's just no way to stop Tom Brady right now.

Dallas Cowboys 24, Washington Redskins 20

Tony Romo rebounded last week in leading his team to an overtime victory that saved the Cowboys from an 0-2 start. On the other hand, Rex Grossman has been better than expected and his Redskins have started 2-0. But Dallas is the more talented team, and even with DeAngelo Hall aiming for Tony Romo's ribs, the Boys will get the best of this NFC East showdown.

New Orleans Saints 31, Houston Texans 28

Drew Brees and the Saints will make the Texans' D feel like it's 2010 again. Through the first two weeks Houston has held opponents to just 10 points a game. But going to the Superdome to face Brees will not have the same outcome.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Indianapolis Colts 10
San Diego Chargers 41, Kansas City Chiefs 6
Green Bay Packers 23, Chicago Bears 13
San Francisco 49ers 21, Cincinnati Bengals 13
Miami Dolphins 17, Cleveland Browns 14
Tennessee Titans 23, Denver Broncos 13
Carolina Panthers 30, Jacksonville Jaguars 16
Baltimore Ravens 24, St. Louis Rams 10
New York Jets 31, Oakland Raiders 20
Arizona Cardinals 34, Seattle Seahawks 9
Atlanta Falcons 27, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14
Detroit Lions 31, Minnesota Vikings 13

The Closer Debate

As you are probably aware, Mariano Rivera has just shattered the MLB saves record a few hours ago with his 602nd regular season save, breaking Trevor Hoffman's record. The Sandman's poise, determination, and classiness make him the best in history at his position and beloved by the Yankee fan base.

That being said, his greatness is still up for debate. How much value should be placed upon a closer?

Relievers, it is sometimes said, are just the guys who aren't good enough to be starters. Why should getting three outs at the end of a ballgame mean anything when starters are expected to get 21 a night? Wouldn't the MLB's top-notch starters be able to handle a closer's task with ease?

Again, it is only three outs a closer has to get for a successful outing. Endurance isn't needed. Game planning is much simpler. Back when Goose Gossage pitched, he, and other relievers, would sometimes go two or three innings to earn a save, rather than just the one. Isn't the task of the modern-day closer simply too undemanding, and therefore overrated?

Well, not necessarily.

What Mariano excels at, his fantastic cutter aside, is the mental aspect of being a closer. If you have ever been watching a starter throwing a shutout, before or during the ninth inning the announcer will usually always say that the last three outs are the hardest to get. Think of how many no-hitters have been broken up in the ninth inning. A rebuttal to this could be that the starter has already thrown eight innings in a ballgame and is highly fatigued. Well then look at solid relievers who have been shifted from an eighth inning role to closer, and have fizzled extraordinarily. They didn't have the "closer's mentality," or the ability to be able to not let the pressure get to them and shut the door.

When a closer fails, it has a drastic effect on a ballclub, and underlines the value of a successful one. Take a look at Brad Lidge. In 2008, he was a perfect 48/48 in save opportunities, including the postseason. A steady closer adds a reassurance to the end of a ballgame. Like with Mariano Rivera in the Yankees case, the Phillies were almost positive they would win the game when leading heading into the ninth inning when 2008 Brad Lidge came out of the bullpen. Then in 2009, Lidge was awful. His 1.95 2008 ERA ballooned to 7.21 in 2009, and the end of every close game turned into a nail biter for the Phillies with the absence of quality closer work.

And this is why Mariano Rivera stands out. He has given the Yankees that reassuring feeling since he became their closer way back in 1997.  While a save may be an overrated stat by some accords, there is no diminishing on what Mo, a sure first-ballot Hall of Famer and owner of a 0.71 postseason ERA, has accomplished in his career. Some try and use the argument of how easy a task a closer might be to lessen his body of work. Either way, it has MLB Hall of Famers in awe. His excellence at his position exemplifies the value a reliable closer can have to a ballclub.

Week 2 NFL Projections

 

Philadelphia Eagles 30, Atlanta Falcons 17

Atlanta won't be able to contain their former star Mike Vick in his determined return. If the Bears can put up 30 on the Falcons' D there is no reason the Eagles much greater attack can't. 2011 won't be as kind to the Falcons as many predict; the expectations are set too high.

Buffalo Bills 27, Oakland Raiders 13

This is the first time in years a game between these two would be considered relevant at all. Ryan Fitzpatrick impressed fans everywhere in a convincing 41-7 win last week, while the Raiders barely escaped with a win over the hapless Broncos.

New Orleans Saints 24, Chicago Bears 20

Defensive leader Brian Urlacher lost his mother this past week, but will be returning to play this Sunday. Even with Urlacher on the opposing side, you can't pick against the Saints to put up a decent amount of points, and the Saints D will stave off Jay Cutler's attack just enough to get the W.

New England Patriots 41, San Diego Chargers 31

No surprise if Tom Brady and Philip Rivers combine for over 800 yards in this matchup. While San Diego did allow the least yards in the NFL last week, facing Tom Brady and the gang is just a bit different than a declining Donovan McNabb.

Detroit Lions 48, Kansas City Chiefs 10

If the Buffalo Bills just put up 41 on this Kansas City D, they are going to have even more trouble with this Lions offense that has the looks of something special.

Baltimore Ravens 24, Tennessee Titans 10
Cleveland Browns 20, Indianapolis Colts 13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20, Minnesota Vikings 17
New York Jets 24, Jacksonville Jaguars 7
Pittsburgh Steelers 17, Seattle Seahwawks 13
Washington Redskins 21, Arizona Cardinals 20
Green Bay Packers 38, Carolina Panthers 14
Dallas Cowboys 20, San Francisco 49ers 17
Cincinnati Bengals 14, Denver Broncos 10
Houston Texans 34, Miami Dolphins 20
New York Giants 23, St. Louis Rams 17

Major PR Mistake for Bud Selig

This past Sunday, September 11, MLB commissioner Bud Selig made a decision that outraged many baseball fans across the country. Today, he is embarrassed by it. And he should be.

In honor of the victims and first responders of 9/11, the New York Mets wanted to wear the first responders' caps for their prime-time ballgame as various NFL coaches had done on the sidelines earlier that day. But Selig shot it down.

The league warned the Mets about wearing the hats, and there is a report that it confiscated the hats after the pregame ceremony, in which Mets players donned the NYPD and FDNY hats. It is disputed whether the MLB actually would have punished them for playing in them, which would have made the league look even worse.

The Mets ended up wearing the official MLB 9/11 cap, which featured a small American flag on the side.

Selig, who has been looked upon critically from baseball fans throughout his tenure, is now facing hatred from many people.  He went and called the Mets earlier today, and criticized them for making the event public and throwing the league "under the bus." But really, he embarrassed himself.

2011 NFL Regular Season Projections

 AFC East:
1) New England Patriots
2) New York Jets
3) Miami Dolphins
4) Buffalo Bills

AFC North:
1) Pittsburgh Steelers
2) Baltimore Ravens
3) Cleveland Browns
4) Cincinnati Bengals

AFC South:
1) Houston Texans
2) Indianapolis Colts
3) Tennessee Titans
4) Jacksonville Jaguars

AFC West:
1) San Diego Chargers
2) Kansas City Chiefs
3) Oakland Raiders
4) Denver Broncos

NFC East:
1) Philadelphia Eagles
2) New York Giants
3) Dallas Cowboys
4) Washington Redskins

NFC North:
1) Green Bay Packers
2) Detroit Lions
3) Chicago Bears
4) Minnesota Vikings

NFC South:
1) Atlanta Falcons
2) New Orleans Saints
3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4) Carolina Panthers

NFC West:
1) St. Louis Rams
2) Arizona Cardinals
3) Seattle Seahawks
4) San Francisco 49ers

SUPER BOWL: Battle of the Birds: Eagles vs. Ravens

Umpire Tensions on the Rise: Part 2

Years ago, umpires could get away with making unfair calls toward managers and players who disrespected them. Nowadays, this would get noticed and the umpire would face possible punishment by the league. Managers realize getting a late inning ejection isn't costly to their team's success; they can watch the game on TV from inside the clubhouse, and have runners relay their late-inning decisions to the acting manager in the dugout. If anything, the only effect of the home team manager getting tossed is that is pumps up the fans, and gets the players' adrenaline going. 

The power of ejecting the players is more meaningful, as this has a direct impact to on-field play. Players are wary of this, which is why the managers often to the arguing for them. The home managers turn the umpires into a target for the fans to jaw at and boo, while making their case regarding the man in blue's call. Everyone has witnessed, or watched at least a few famous outbursts, such as the rather amusing ejection of Mississippi Braves manager Phillip Wellman that was made famous by Sportscenter. Around since the dawn days of baseball, these tirades are an aspect of the game that makes it so amusing to the fans.

However, they are increasing at a rather quick pace, so much that there is now an Umpire Ejection Fantasy League, which has received a few Sportscenter shout-outs as well. Links to more notable/entertaining ejections are below.

- Nationals minor league prodigy Bryce Harper
- Remember Jose Offerman? Here he is getting banned by a Dominican Winter League after this tirade.
- South Georgia Peanuts manager Wally Backman goes overboard. *Warning, explicit content.
- And, of course, Lou Piniella, and his famous Wrigley meltdown.

Part 3 in a few days.

Umpire Tensions on the Rise: Part 1

It's been an issue for over a century. Baseball players, managers, and umpires have simply not gotten along very well. Childish player outbursts that are generally condemned in Little League have become commonplace in the Major Leagues. In the eyes of the players, arguments should be permitted on any call they disagree with. The problem is, players expect calls to be 100% correct. The umpires appear ignorant to fans watching the game at home or in the ballpark, and are not held in high regard by the players, either. The men in blue, well, they seem perfectly fine with tossing players and coaches who yell at them, and don't think twice about it.

In practically every major sport, the athletes have a problem with the men that make the game possible, the guys enforcing the rulebook. Fact is, fans and players take the umpires for granted. A perfect game for an umpire is one where they go unnoticed. The only attention they receive is negative. And sure, umpires make mistakes; they're human. But the good calls they make can seem wrong as well, to the 40,000 home fans that all think they can call the game better.

Part 2 tomorrow.

Vick Cashes In

Boy, does it help to be a gifted football player. Just a few years removed from prison, dog killer Michael Vick was signed earlier today for six years and 100 million dollars, roughly 40 guaranteed, by the Philadelphia Eagles. This comes after a season in which Vick posted a 100.2 passer rating and was awarded the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year Award.

The average person with a criminal record struggles to find any work at all, but football can take someone a long way. Formerly bankrupt, Vick will have the cash to build a mansion similar to the one in Surry County, Virginia, the site of his dog-fighting ring, Bad Newz Kennels.

By signing Vick to such a lucrative deal, the Eagles have made the decision, or statement that Michael Vick is now their franchise. The struggling offensive line will have even more of a responsibility to protect him, as he is now 100 million dollar property.

His top receiver, DeSean Jackson, now has more reason to gripe. A top ten NFL receiver, he had all the right to hold out during training camp, as he is due just $650,000 this coming season. It is a possibility the Eagles tried to free up more cap space for Jackson by signing Vick to such a long-term deal, but it didn't do much, as the Eagles are only four million under it. This is not enough to give DeSean the money he wants. There is always the consideration that if the Eagles see enough in Steve Smith they might be willing to part with Jackson altogether and have Smith and Jeremy Maclin as the primary receivers, but that is an issue for next year.

Vick's reckless style of play makes such a large investment extremely risky; whether he will last past this season is yet to be seen. He throws his body around the way Philly fans love in the nature Allen Iverson did playing basketball, but the front office will surely frown upon it. And the way the offensive line has guarded him throughout the preseason has not been encouraging, as Vick has taken numerous hits.

Vick's quality of play in the future is up in the air as well. Toward the end of last season opposing defenses seemed to pick up on his tendencies, and he finished up the year a lot sloppier than he began it. He's made reckless decisions so far this preseason as well.

All of this aside, the Eagles see enough in Michael Vick to give him a hundred mil. They see enough in him to entrust him with the task of accomplishing the one thing his predecessor, Donovan McNabb, could not: bring the Lombardi Trophy to Philly.

Bankruptball: Has Billy Beane Lost His Touch?

Nine years ago, the Oakland Athletics were on top of the world. Orchestrated by general manager Billy Beane, the 2002 A's amassed an impressive 103 wins, the same as the defending American League Champion New York Yankees. And at what price? About one-third of the Yankees payroll. Beane's methods became the stuff of legend when author Michael Lewis chronicled the 2002 A's season in his best-selling book Moneyball.

Starring Hollywood heartthrob Brad Pitt as Beane, the movie Moneyball - based on Lewis' book - will hit theaters in a mere month. Meanwhile, many pundits wonder if legendary Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane had lost his edge.

On Wednesday August 24, the New York Times ran an article suggesting the very same thing. Even Beane is not entirely optimistic.

“There are a lot of smart guys running teams now, and a lot of the guys who are smart also have a lot of money,” Beane said. “That’s a pretty tough combination to go against. We’ve all started valuing the same things. - The New York Times.

Since the release of Lewis' best-seller, teams have utilized Bean's methods. They have placed more emphasis on on-base percentage and slugging percentage than ever before, both key statistics in Beane's methods to evaluate players. Players like Brett Gardner and Carlos Ruiz have been discovered and are revered for their ability to grind out at bats and tire pitchers. A .240 hitter is a sought-after commodity because his OBP is a stellar .385.

Teams have turned around. Theo Epstein, using Bill James's wisdoms and Bean's tactics reversed the curse in Boston, winning a World Series in 2004 and 2007.

But unlike Beane's Atheltics, other teams have money. And with money and genius, as Beane pointed out, other teams are tough competition for Oakland.

The Oakland A's have not made the playoffs since they captured the 2006 American League West flag, only to fall to the Detroit Tigers in the ALCS. In fact, they have not finished above .500 since their last playoff berth.

Though the A's may not be what they were a decade ago, Beane's work will never go unforgotten.

The 2001 A's won 102 games, seven more than the Yankees. In fact, the A's and the Yankees met in the American League Division Series that year. Oakland took the first two games of the series, putting the Yankees one game away from elimination. Alas, the Yankees mounted a tremendous series comeback, winning the next three games to stun the White Elephants and advance to the American League Championship Series and eventually the World Series. Regardless of Oakland's shortcomings, they were still just one win away from ousting baseball's richest team from the playoffs.

In 2002, Oakland won 20 consecutive games. In the draft, Beane took future Major League outfielder Nick Swisher, now with the Yankees, and the workhorse right-hander Joe Blanton, currently on the Philadelphia Phillies. Shortstop Miguel Tejada won the AL MVP Award, Barry Zito won the AL Cy Young Award, and closer Bill Koch won the AL Relief Man Award. The pitching was perhaps the best in the league as three hurlers dealt over 200 innings - Zito, Mark Mulder, and Tim Hudson. Mark Mulder had the highest ERA of the three - 3.47 - and won 19 games. Not too shabby. Again, the A's fell short of World Series glory as they bowed to the Minnesota Twins in 5 games in the ALDS.

The impact Beane had on the game at the turn of the century is astounding. Never before had a general manager tried to change the game so radically as Beane. Beane's shrewdness, perseverance, and the team's success in spite of a payroll ranking around the 3rd or 4th lowest in the league immortalized both Beane and the A's in the annals of baseball history.

Beane touched off a revolution in evaluating baseball players nearly a decade ago. He's busted conventional wisdoms, changed the way scouts and baseball officials think, and proved that it does not take a Yankee-sized payroll to contend. But thanks to Lewis, Beane's secrets are out and his edge is gone. Even so, Beane remains one the most respected general managers in the game.

2011: A September to Remember?

Take a glance at the MLB standings. There is currently just one, yes, one, race for the postseason going on right now with just over a week until the final month of the MLB season. It's not the Yankees and Red Sox; they are currently just half a game apart, but the runner-up is almost sure to win the wild card. Only the NL West has two teams vying for one spot at the moment, as the Diamondbacks are trying to stave off the defending champs, the Giants.

With the exception of those four teams, all of the other division's top two games are at least four games apart. Unless the Angels or Indians have one last run in them, the division races aren't going to be much of anything. The Indians don't seem like they have anything left to catch the Tigers. They just do not have the offensive firepower needed to put together a September run. The Angels are trailing defending AL pennant winner Texas, who is 7-3 in their last ten games. I don't see the Rangers collapsing, either. And in the NL, St. Louis has almost no shot to catch the surging Brewers, who have quickly built up a massive nine game cushion.

This is the first season I can remember with essentially no wild card races. It is basically set in stone that the Braves will get the final NL spot, and the Yankees/Red Sox will in the AL. The Braves are too far away to challenge the Phillies and too far ahead of the pack in the NL (eight games) to be challenged themselves.

For teams that find themselves up with a few weeks to go (the Phillies), September can be used to rest starters and give the call-ups a shot in the bigs. The same can be said for all of baseball's bottom dwellers. This season, there is an awful lot of them.

As a baseball fan, I hope the Indians and Angels can make the home stretch a contest like the Tigers and Twins did just a few years ago. Remember Game 163 that was played? It's what makes September the month full of nail-biting action that it is known to be. For the fun to happen this year, a few teams need to step it up.