2012 MLB Preview: AL East

The emergence of a fourth team. Just what the AL East needs, right?

"Toronto is the next Tampa," Yankees G.M. Brian Cashman says, "They have a system that's ready to pop. When you have that kind of talent, it can come very quickly. And it will."

And the Rays G.M., Andrew Friedman, essentially echoed that statement. "They're absolutely legit. [The Jays] have the talent to be really good. It wouldn't surprise me if they were playing meaningful games in September."

Not that the Yankees or Rays should be worried about their Canadian foe just yet. With the new wild card instilled, both should be playing in October. Of course, the Red Sox are out with a vengeance after last season's collapse, and the second-place division finisher out west (either Angels or Rangers) will probably take one of the wild cards.


Of the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, and Jays, someone, or maybe two teams, is going to be left out. This year, the Blue Jays are probably one of them. Their emergence in the next few years, however, will make baseball's best division even better.

Projected Standings

1. New York Yankees      97-65
2. Boston Red Sox           94-68
3. Tampa Bay Rays          92-70
4. Toronto Blue Jays        86-76
5. Baltimore Orioles        61-101


1. New York Yankees

Projected Lineup

SS Derek Jeter
CF Curtis Granderson
2B Robinson Cano
3B Alex Rodriguez
1B Mark Teixeira
RF Nick Swisher
DH Raul Ibanez
C Russell Martin
LF Brett Gardner

Projected Rotation

LH CC Sabathia
RH Ivan Nova
RH Huroki Kuroda
RH Michael Pineda
RH Phil Hughes

Before the offseason began, the Yankees looked like they would heading into 2012 with two starters and three question marks. They addressed it in an nontraditional Yankee manner: without any major signings. Trading hot prospect hitting prospect Jesus Montero for young flamethrower Michael Pineda and inking consistent vet Huroki Kuroda to a single-year deal suddenly bolster the club's rotation to one of the more feared in the bigs.

Of course, Hughes still has question marks, and Pineda was only a rookie last year. Handling the Big Apple will be quite the change from half-filled Safeco Field in Seattle, and he faces the vaunted "sophomore slump." But Pineda is a talented pitcher with unlimited potential, and consistency from him could help propel the Yankees to the Series.

David Robertson's emergence makes the Rafael Soriano signing look even worse. He may bounce back to have a productive season, but 35 million is ridiculous for a 7th-inning guy. Robertson remains the heir apparent to Mariano Rivera, if there ever is going to be one.

Save Raul Ibanez' acquisition to play DH in place of retired Jorge Posada, the lineup remains essentially the same. Which means dangerous.


2. Boston Red Sox

Projected Lineup

CF Jacoby Ellsbury
2B Dustin Pedroia
1B Adrian Gonzalez
DH David Ortiz
3B Kevin Youkilis
LF Carl Crawford
SS Mike Aviles
RF Ryan Sweeney
C Jarrod Saltalamacchia

Projected Rotation

RH Josh Beckett
LH Jon Lester
RH Clay Buchholz
RH Daniel Bard
LH Felix Doubront

All the attention is on Bobby Valentine this season and how he will handle his players coming off of last year's perceived lack of discipline and of course, the September collapse. Practically all the talent remains that had everyone making them their World Series pick a year ago; the talent isn't the question though, but the sense of urgency is.

Acquiring Andrew Bailey was a far better option than paying Jonathan Papelbon 50 million like Philly did. Plus, his time in Boston was finished anyways. Mike Aviles is a solid low-cost option at shortstop while they await Jose Iglesias to be ready for the show.

Daniel Bard's addition will be key: he can add to rotation depth they desperately needed in last year's 7-19 fall down the stretch. In a complete season in the rotation, 12-10 with a 3.80 ERA seems the area he will be in.

Carl Crawford returning to form could be the weapon that pushes Boston past the Yankees and Rays and into the postseason as a brute force. The Fenway Faithful may be well on their way to watching what Boston left unfinished a season ago.


The remaining three teams will be finished later tonight.

The Great Unknown: Matt Flynn Signs With Seahawks

Matt Flynn could be the next Aaron Rodgers -- stuck behind a franchise QB for a few years until he gets his own chance to shine and breaks out into stardom. Oddly enough, Flynn held the clipboard for Rodgers in Green Bay, and as you know, Rodgers did the same for Brett Favre.

Or Flynn could just as easily become the next Kevin Kolb or Matt Cassel -- signed for big money because of a sample size of a few games. Cassel had a full season under his belt before Kansas City broke the bank to make him what they hoped would be their franchise quarterback, but was handicapped by playing in Bill Belichick's offense. And Kolb was signed for $63,000,000 by the Cardinals based on a few 300-yard starts in Philadelphia, in which he still threw an alarming amount of picks. But potential was there.

The thing is, while Rodgers is obviously an All-Pro, Kolb and Cassel haven't yet lived up to their billing.

Kolb's sample size of seven starts, and Cassel's of a full season, however small they are, are reassuring when you see that Flynn was just inked for $26 million based on a mainly a single game (he had two other starts in 2010, one of them impressive, but would not have been enough to get him a payday).

You might remember Week 17 of last season when Aaron Rodgers' unknown backup came in for the Packers' meaningless game against the Lions, and went on to throw for six touchdowns and 480 yards. That was Flynn.

Sure, that was just one game, but many are saying Seattle got a bargain with the potential franchise QB: "only" ten million guaranteed on the three-year deal.

Flynn comes into 2012 as a giant question mark with a ton of upside. Aiding him will be a top five running back in Marshawn Lynch, and an excited receiver Doug Baldwin.

"Just got off the phone with Matt Flynn. And he's ready to WIN!!," the excited wideout tweeted.

We'll see if he can.

Prepare for the Finale

The pencils are out (pens if we're overconfident) for this March's tournament, with as little confidence in our bracket predictions as always. Last year I essentially got lucky with my selections, finishing in the top 2,000 for the entire country on ESPN's Tournament Challenge. The event had over nine million entrants, and I will never finish with as high a result again. I will proudly say, though, that my bracket generated more points than every talking head on the selection shows.

I didn't have any money invested in that bracket.

Looking at this year's field, there is really only one legitimate snub: the Drexel Dragons. It's a shame teams like West Virginia and USF get in simply because they are in a power conference, and maybe have a few more top 50 wins. But let's face it: coming down the stretch, Drexel was as hot as anyone: they had nineteen straight wins until they ran into tournament-bound VCU, and lost in a heartbreaker. They basically accomplished down the stretch what Murray St. did with that 23-0 streak to start the year, which ranked them in the top ten. Sure, the strength of Drexel's schedule was lousy, but watching them play VCU in the Colonial Championship sure made me a believer they could make some noise come tourney time.

The Iona Gaels enter as last year's VCU: the team no one thought should be in. Many claim they stole the spot that should have gone to Drexel, and there is really no argument against it. The Gaels are a dark horse, and if they get through BYU in the play-in, could potentially give heavy favorite Marquette some trouble. Iona's roster features star forward Mike Glover (18.5 ppg, 9 rpg, 64.4 field goal %), and the dazzling passer Scott Machado, who leads the nation averaging ten assists a night. Don't sleep on the Gaels.

A great matchup that I really hate is Wichita State vs. VCU. This would be a pleasure to see in the Sweet Sixteen, but having it in the first round bothers me. Wichita State should be seeded higher, probably a four, and VCU is extremely dangerous as a twelve. Both of these teams have plenty of potential, and it's a shame that one will make an early exit. As is, I have VCU upsetting both Wichita and Indiana, but falling to Kentucky in the Sweet Sixteen. How great would it be to see VCU knock off the one-and-dones (UK), if Iowa State or UConn can't pull it off first.

Remember "Who's Kilpatrick?" If you don't know what I'm talking about, don't worry about it. But teams, particularly ACC champ Florida State, should watch out for Mike Cronin's Bearcats, a team coming in hot after a run to the Big East final. As a six, they are my lowest seeded Elite Eight team, though I could just as easily see them falling to Texas in the first round.

Here's where I lose my credibility: my upsets. My bracket features Long Beach State in the Sweet Sixteen. Yes, I am aware they need to get past New Mexico and probably Louisville, but I picked it to happen anyway. I have Murray State getting past Marquette, and I wouldn't be surprised if they knocked off Missouri as well. I have a seemingly always dangerous Belmont team getting past Georgetown (ever notice how the Big East teams always make unusually early exits every year?), as well as Harvard over Vandy and Wisconsin.

I usually fill out my bracket not having the slightest clue of my selection to win until I see the matchups. Michigan State wasn't even one of the teams that crossed my mind until I sat there satisfied with a complete bracket. In a Final Four that features Baylor, State, Kansas, and Cuse, Izzo's bunch ends up winning in my crazy edition. If you haven't noticed, Michigan State always comes in far from a favorite, but always executes in extraordinary fashion. With one of the nation's toughest schedules to prepare them, Draymond Green and the Spartans are a force to be reckoned with.

Why do I have Baylor in the Final Four? Quincy Miller, Quincy Acy, and Perry Jones III give the somewhat under-performing Bears the most talented team on paper. Basically, I am banking on the fact that they get hot at the right time. And none of their matchups really scare me. They should dispatch of South Dakota State, UNLV/Colorado, and Duke if they don't hit all their threes, fairly easily.

But that can only be assumed, as with all else come March Madness.

Predictions: Some Bold, Some Obvious

1. Peyton Manning will sign with the Miami Dolphins, and connect with Brandon Marshall to give the wideout 1,600 receiving yards.

Marshall recorded over 1,200 yards with Chad Henne and I forget the other guy throwing to him. With a top five (arguably) QB in league history throwing balls his way, expect a combination that will turn out far better than the much-hyped Tom Brady/Chad Ochocinco combo that wasn't.

2. Evan Turner emerges as an NBA star.

It's not just because tonight is his coming-out party (26 points, 9 boards so far in his 2nd start). As the Sixers have faltered lately until this game against the Celtics (where they lead 102-65 as of this minute), Doug Collins shook things up and inserted Turner into the starting lineup in place of Jodie Meeks. Big deal, right? Yes, actually. Turner had been playing largely off-ball for most of his minutes so far this season, but in tonight's game, Collins finally gave him permission to play like he did in college. Seems like eons ago when Evan Turner was the college player of the year. Mark my word, he will again become a household name.

3. Josh Johnson wins the NL Cy Young.

* If Clayton Kershaw doesn't repeat.

I picked Johnson to do the same last year, but he got hurt. Coming off a season in which he recorded just nine starts (and a sparkly 1.64 ERA), Johnson is under the radar to pretty much all baseball fans. When people think of the new-look Marlins, they think of Ozzie, Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez. Heath Bell and Giancarlo Stanton are much talked about as well. It's as if Josh Johnson no longer exists. He will when he brings in the hardware.

4. Andrew Luck isn't as good as everyone says he will be.

The last "once-in-a-generation" QB prospect? JaMarcus Russell. BY NO MEANS am I saying Andrew Luck will be JaMarcus Russell. I think he will be a good NFL quarterback. But he will certainly not be Peyton Manning: leading what is really a three-win team to thirteen a season. The start of the rookie's 23-million dollar paycheck will be rough.

5. Either Neftali Feliz or Daniel Bard (probably Bard) will flame out in the starting rotation.

This usually doesn't work. Neither of these guys are lazy nutcases like Joba Chamberlain. But bringing guys out of late-inning work in the pen to the rotation, in general, simply does not work. I understand that these guys were starters in their past, but their mindset is currently to shut the door late in games, not start them. And in the routine-oriented mind of an MLB pitcher, that is significant.

Just a Few Thoughts...

It's a busy time in sports at the moment: the NBA season is going strong, MLB Spring Training is underway (I'm heading down to Tampa tomorrow for the weekend), men's college basketball is gearing up for March Madness, and the women's season is concluding as well; the NFL draft is approaching, NASCAR started off their season with an eventful Daytona 500, the U.S. just beat Italy in men's soccer for the first time in history, and golf and tennis seasons are in full swing.

I'd just like to use this column for a few random musings about all of that.

Yesterday my weekly copy of Sports Illustrated came in the mail. I pulled it out of the mailbox to find the heading "Marlinsanity?" staring at me across the cover with a picture of a laughing Ozzie Guillen and Jose Reyes. It's not the topic I have a problem with, but rather the heading. What started with Vinsanity for Vince Carter (which was pretty cool at the time), obviously became Jeremy Lin's moniker as well. So now what, because Lin has it, we are just going to call everything a form of "insanity?" Am I going to cook my Ellio's pizza for dinner tonight in the ovensanity? I know I'm fighting against myself on this one, but does Sunday morning's brunch have a side of baconsanity? I hope you see my point.

Anyway, I actually watched some NASCAR this week -- Monday night's early Tuesday morning's Daytona 500 (on a school night; yes, I'm only in high school). I hardly ever do watch, but somehow, I seem to recognize all of the drivers. Even if you think all it is is guys making left turns for four hours, there is actually something transfixing about the sport; whether it be the sometimes frequent wrecks or the surprising amount of teamwork, something kept me watching the entire thing (even with that two hour fire delay). There's certainly no shortage of drama -- you can't go to a tennis match and see Juan Pablo Montoya crash into a truck holding 800 liters of jet fuel (used to dry the track). Sure, this isn't the norm, but if you're casual like me, a few dozen-car collisions will do the trick. I'm also impressed with all the teamwork from the pit crews to the driver that goes into the sport, something I used to overlook. And the teamwork at the end of the sport's biggest spectacle makes for a great story in itself -- third-place finisher Greg Biffle held off second-place Dale Earnhardt, Jr. instead of trying to get the win himself, so teammate Matt Kenseth could bring home the checkered.

I'm back to complaining again to vent about another annoyance of sports. Seems like every sporting event you try to watch this past year or so, you hear more about Twitter than the actual games. Couple that with the fact that ESPN airs tweets like @KingJames: went to da pharmacy for some Rogaine this morning. #itsnotwhatyouthink. Well, I wish a few of them had some humor about them.

I'm about to start packing for Florida. Got a Yankees - Phillies slate at Steinbrenner Field to look forward to. I'll write about it soon after I get back Monday.

How to Fix the Dunk Contest

DeMar DeRozan stated it best a year ago, when he campaigned against props that have taken over the dunk contest. The best pure dunker in the field of Serge Ibaka, Blake Griffin, JaVale McGee and himself, DeRozan was eliminated after the first round, probably because he didn't use any props: gospel choruses, Kias, teddy bears...

"There's no telling what might happen next year," DeRozan said. "Someone might use a trampoline."

Well, that didn't happen, but there was a motorcycle to jump over, a camera attached to eventual winner Jeremy Evans' ear, and a glow-in-the dark jersey (the only one that was actually kind of cool). Also included in this year's contest, rated an "F" by over 35% of SportsNation, was corny dialogue prior to practically every dunk.

There was also P Diddy proclaiming "black power" after stating his favorite sports movie was White Men Can't Jump before Chase Budinger's first attempt. I'll let you be the judge.

Honestly, I wouldn't care about all this garbage, if the dunks were actually impressive. This year, only one really stood out: Evans' two-ball alley-oop slam. Budinger, Paul George and Derrick Williams were all disappointments.

Oh, and Blake Griffin jumping over the car last year wasn't any good either.

It's just frustrating as a fan when TeamFlightBrothers on YouTube feature hundreds of slams that completely blow the NBA dunk contest away.  

Another problem: the contestants. It pains me to hate on these role guys, but when there was a graphic saying Chase Budinger had registered six dunks all season, well, yeah.

As Charles Barkley stated, LeBron and those other superstars need to "get off their butts" and get into the dunk contest.

I hate LeBron. And I don't like most of the other NBA superstars either. But their participation would make for a better contest from a fan's perspective. I don't need to explain why. Or at least get legitimate dunkers back out there, such as DeRozan, Andre Iguodala, maybe a John Wall.

And get rid of those stupid props.

Why Not? ManRam Signs With Oakland

The likely outcome of the Oakland Athletics' signing of soon-to-be 40-year-old Manny Ramirez is a great deal of unfulfilled hype. But for $500,000 (what they are paying him if he makes the big league club), isn't that the worst thing that could happen?

Manny's one-year deal is a minor league contract, but he heads into Spring Training as a non-roster invitee. Chances are he will make the A's roster for the regular season, and will be able to play after serving a 50-game suspension for PEDs (this was his second offense; he normally would have had to wait 100 games, but him sitting out last season negated half of them).

For the (very) small market A's, this can only be a positive. $500,000 is almost nothing to a pro sports team, even the A's, and can be made up in a few days by the extra ticket sales Manny will bring in. They are also starving for offense; they finished 12th of 14 AL teams in runs scored a season ago. While Manny will be turning 40 around the time he'll be able to play, it is hoped that he will be able to provide a spark from the DH spot.

He's also been working out all winter, something characteristic of him, even if it doesn't seem so. He's in playing shape currently, although not being juiced up on PEDs could have an impact to his power numbers along with age.

Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes, the highest-paid player on the A's roster (four years, 36 million), has expressed interest in playing alongside Manny. It's been perceived Ramirez would be a positive clubhouse addition with a group of young guys, as opposed to a distraction. Based on all he's been through, the Manny being Manny act will probably tone down.

If Manny can come into Oakland, be half the hitter he was, and sell some tickets, that will be all owner Lew Wolff and the rest of the Athletics organization can ask for.

The Team No One's Talking About

With Jeremy Lin and the Knicks, and of course the Miami Heat and now L.A. Clippers receiving all the coverage, the 21-9 San Antonio Spurs continue to remain under the radar.

In fact, it's always been this way, save for when Tony Parker was dating Eva Longoria.

The nation, or at least ESPN, has been thrilled with the Knicks' seven-game winning streak powered by Lin, which includes all of one win over a team with a record above .500 (the Lakers). Meanwhile, San Anton has ripped off nine straight, including quality wins over the 76ers and Thunder. Unnoticed.

When you have a team with a leader as humble and professional as Tim Duncan, attention is not going to seek you out. And San Antonio isn't exactly New York when it comes to marketability. The Spurs have a veteran, collected locker room without guys demanding trades (a la Dwight Howard) or talking about returning to old teams (LeBron James), essentially producing no drama at all. Just winning basketball games.

The team aspect championship teams require certainly exists in San Antonio. Tiago Splitter and DeJuan Blair have helped to take all of the dirty work off of an aging, but still productive, Tim Duncan. Tony Parker is averaging a career high in assists (7.8) in his 11th season. Richard Jefferson, who didn't appear to have much left heading into this season, saved the day by filling in nicely when Manu Ginobili was out.

Age was supposed to be a factor for the Spurs, particularly in this condensed season. So far, it hasn't been. In fact, while a future core might not be presently on the roster, youth is definitely emerging. Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, and Gary Neal have been key pieces to this year's club, a welcoming sign to Spurs fans worried about Duncan and Ginobili's age.

Gregg Popovich's steady crew has a rocky road ahead the next nine games, including matchups with the Clippers twice, Blazers, Nuggets twice, Bulls, and Knicks. Shouldn't phase this bunch at all.

Heart, Hustle, and Muscle

This past Friday I watched in person as my beloved 76ers fell in a 78-77 heartbreaker to the Los Angeles Clippers. The reasons for the loss on the Sixers' end were glaringly obvious: missed free throws, too many forced jump shots early in the shot clock, and lousy final play execution.

And former Sixer Reggie Evans.

The old-school, grind-it-out vet came in and simply out-hustled every other player on the floor. He sprinted the floor like a six-year-old would, and dove for loose balls like they were hundred dollar bills about to fall down a storm drain. He made Elton Brand appear as a ghost on the glass, at one point giving L.A. an opportunity for 5th-chance points.

Reggie Evans has made a career out of this type of work. In a league where being lackadaisical is the norm, the 31-year-old plays every possession as if his life rides on its outcome. No, he isn't even close to being the most skilled guy out there. Scoring is an unknown to him, and he is a career 52% free throw shooter. His skill set on another guy may have him fighting for a D-League spot.

He's simply in the league because of his blue-collar, never-say-die attitude every minute he's on the floor. It's why he's started 289 of 592 career games despite never having a scoring average of six points or more. The effect he is capable of having on a basketball game isn't seen in the stat sheet, but unbeknownst to all, it does in the final score.

When leaving the Wells Fargo Center, I heard plenty of mutterings asking why the Sixers' organization let him walk in free agency. Come playoff time, a guy like Reggie Evans can certainly be missed, because when the time comes to man up, he's always there.

No Shame in Losing?

At least it appeared that way just hours after the New England Patriots' 21-17 Super Bowl loss at the hands of the New York Giants, when star tight end Rob Gronkowski was seen dancing shirtless with tackle Matt Light to LMFAO at the Pats' post-Super Bowl party (Tom Brady, Wes Welker, Vince Wilfork, Chad Ochocinco and others didn't attend).

Gronk's high-ankle sprain appeared to have limited him all game against the Giants, where he recorded just two catches for 26 yards after having fifteen receptions in the previous two postseason games. But on the dance floor? See for yourself in the video above: he looked perfectly fine. Sure, not as much stress is put on the ankle dancing as making high-impact cuts on a football field, but nonetheless, his actions still raise questions.

It's especially annoying to Pats fans, who listened in all week to SportsCenter's 24/7 Gronkowski ankle updates. His questionable status didn't appear to be a hoax, either, as his play did seem directly affected.

And of course, there's the matter of losing. I was sitting next to a Patriots fan for the entire game, and he seemed a lot more upset by the loss than Gronk did at that party.

Top 25 Baseball Players (20-25)

20) Yadier Molina, C, St. Louis Cardinals

Why is Yadi ranked above Joe Mauer, Alex Avila, Victor Martinez, and the rest of MLB's catchers? Hitting wise, Mauer and Martinez are better, no questions asked (although Molina outhit Mauer last year by a landslide). Avila will be. But defensively, Molina is the best the game has to offer. He manages a pitching staff far better than Martinez, and pretty much everyone else outside of Carlos Ruiz. He possesses a cannon for an arm. And a .309 postseason average, where's he been the battery mate of two World Series-winning pitching staffs? Not bad.

21) Justin Upton, RF, Arizona Diamondbacks

One of baseball's brightest rising stars, Upton is still just 24 years of age. In 2010, he had an awful strikeout rate (152 in just 492 ABs), but he cut it down to 126 in 100 more at-bats in 2011. He was an MVP candidate for a D'Back team that surprised all by making a run into the playoffs. By the time his career is done, his fireplace mantel could possess that hardware.


22) Felix Hernandez, P, Seattle Mariners

Though tying a career high with fourteen wins last year (one more than his 2010 Cy Young season, proving wins to a starter don't signify anything), King Felix took a step back from the past two years. His ERA jumped 1.2 points to 3.47, and he threw sixteen fewer innings. That being said, the stuff was there (222 Ks), and 2011 shows all the signs of a slightly off year (and it was still a very impressive season). By the time his career is done, he'll possess a Hall of Fame resume.


23) Jose Reyes, SS, Miami Marlins

Yeah, he won the batting title this past season. He steals bags, too. But Reyes plays a shaky shortstop, and I'm not going to lie, sitting out the last game to preserve his batting title definitely hurt his ranking. He hasn't been clutch or produced much RBI-wise out of the leadoff hole, but heading this potent Marlins lineup could do him wonders.


24) Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox

Boston fans love the grit and grind the little guy plays with. He'll probably never again touch his 2008 numbers at the plate, maybe due to the fact he goes out of his way to hit home runs. Nonetheless, Pedroia is a wonderful player, and he'll play an integral part of the Red Sox' attempt to return to the postseason.


25) Michael Young, 3B, Texas Rangers

Certainly his batting stats were inflated by his the protection of Texas' explosive lineup. But still, it takes elite skill to hit .338 under any circumstance. And 213 hits at age 34? Ridiculous. And while this doesn't pertain to rankings, he showed he's an excellent team guy (see: Stranded in Texas) by accepting his role as everyday utilityman. Young's a true professional with a ton of skill (and 2061 career hits).

Honorable mentions: Alex Avila, C, Detroit Tigers; Matt Cain, P, San Francisco Giants; Hunter Pence, RF, Philadelphia Phillies; Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins; Adrian Beltre, 3B, Texas Rangers; Cole Hamels, P, Philadelphia Phillies; Mariano Rivera, P, New York Yankees